THERE is something contradictory and flawed about trying to predict a cup shock.

After all, if you have an inkling that something is going to happen then it surely diminishes any element of surprise when it consequently does.

Still, such logic is usually ignored at this time of year when teams from the top tier of Scottish football are often paired with those from down the divisions in the William Hill Scottish Cup and a nation pores over the fixture card with all the focus and attention of a forensic scientist to try to gauge which of the leading sides may be most at risk of being embarrassed. This was the subject of intense debate on one radio station at Saturday lunchtime, the pundits eventually reaching the consensus that this was not going to be a day for shocks. And if there was going to be an upset, it certainly was not going to be at New Douglas Park where Albion Rovers, temporarily evicted from their Cliftonhill home because of fire damage, were taking on Motherwell. A comfortable away victory was all they, and just about everyone else who had weighed up the strengths of either side, could foresee.

Instead, what transpired was one of the biggest Scottish Cup shocks of this or any other season, courtesy of Gary Phillips' 90th-minute goal. It was a completely illogical result. Motherwell were one of the form sides in the country, third in the SPFL Premiership and without a defeat to their name in 34 competitive meetings with their Lanarkshire neighbours. Part-time Rovers had given up home advantage, lay eighth - now ninth - in the bottom tier of Scottish football, and had lost their two previous games to Montrose and Berwick Rangers. It all pointed towards an easy away victory. Of course, it did not turn out that way.

Rovers played out of their skins and Motherwell woefully underperformed. As Stuart McCall went to great lengths to point out afterwards, it was not as if his team were lazy or lethargic. They enjoyed plenty of possession and were clearly working hard. It was just that they looked as if they were wearing their boots on the wrong feet. The crosses from the wide areas were poor. The strikers made the wrong runs. The midfield, lacking the leadership and dig of Keith Lasley until late in the match, struggled to impose themselves against supposedly inferior opposition. The defence looked uncomfortable. Rovers defended stoically and heroically, marked tightly, concentrated hard and made key tackles and blocks wherever necessary. Due to his side's diligence, and Motherwell's impotence, Neil Parry in the Rovers goal had only one save to make, keeping out John Sutton's header after 78 minutes. Having mentally prepared himself for one of the busiest afternoons of his career, the former Queen's Park goalkeeper ended up having surprisingly little to do. "I didn't make as many saves as probably most people would have expected - there were a lot of cross balls out into the box but we defended very well and thankfully I made saves when the time came," he said. "We thought this [artificial] pitch would suit Motherwell as they could get it down and play football but the result was down to the way the gaffer had us organised. We defended when we needed to in the first half and it maybe wasn't too pretty but we got our chance in the second half and we took it.

"At times in the second half we played really well, passed the ball well and got forward. We rode our luck at times but we're delighted."

In contrast, this must go down as one of the worst results in Motherwell's history and the large travelling contingent let McCall and his players know all about it - before graciously hanging back to afford the jubilant Rovers players a round of applause as they left the field. With no Motherwell player in the mood to address the media in the aftermath, it was left to McCall to try to put his finger on just why his team had failed to win a game they had been widely tipped to win easily. "I don't know what I could have said [to the players] at full time," he said. "It probably would have been easier if I could have ripped into them for a lack of effort, fight or spirit - but I don't think that's what it was. We weren't outfought or outbattled, we had loads of the ball. We just didn't have the nous and intelligence. It was more silence than anything else in the end [in the dressing room], just numbness. When you're on the end of [a shock] it's one of the worst feelings as a player or manager you can have."