There are three potential scenarios facing the newco Rangers from this vote, and a fourth depending on the outcome of the SFA reconvening its Appellate Tribunal. Here, Herald Sport examines all four possibilities, the circumstances that would lead to them occurring, and how Rangers and Scottish football would respond . . .
RANGERS STAY IN THE SPL
If eight clubs vote in favour of The Rangers Football Club receiving the transferred share then the newco will play in the top flight this season. The choice facing each club is to evaluate the damage to their business model of an SPL without Rangers, which diminishes the broadcast deal, other commercial contracts and revenue from the Ibrox club's travelling support, against the dismay of their own fans, many of whom are threatening to boycott games, and are not buying season tickets, if the newco is admitted.
How would Rangers respond?
The club itself would no doubt prefer to play in the SPL, but the likelihood is that sanctions would be applied. At the very least, the other clubs would in return for a yes vote demand that the newco agree to accept any penalties liable to the oldco following the SPL's investigation into EBTs, but also a change to the 11-1 voting rights that have essentially allowed the Old Firm a veto over all decisions. If points and financial penalties are also levied on the newco, then Rangers may be less inclined to favour this option, and the Ibrox fans are increasingly agitating for the club itself to choose to move to third division.
How would Scottish football respond?
A growing movement among grassroots fans has built against the readmission to the SPL of the newco Rangers. Many chairmen fear that fans will turn against their own clubs if it votes in favour, and boycotts have been threatened for games involving the newco. There is also the danger that ill-feeling spreads and becomes a lasting threat for Scottish football.
RANGERS DROP INTO FIRST DIVISION
An idea gathering traction. There is a belief in at least one SPL boardroom that Sky will honour the terms of their deal if Rangers might return to the top-flight within one season. There is no obvious route to sending the Ibrox side down one division, though. The SPL have decided Rangers have a case to answer for their EBT use, with disciplinary proceedings beginning once the July 4 vote has been held, and among the 18 possible sanctions is a catch-all penalty that allows the SPL to decide an appropriate penalty. This could be docking enough points from last season to relegate Rangers, and bring Dunfermline Athletic back into the SPL, or to decide that demotion is suitable punishment, and so bring Dundee, who finished second last season, into the top flight. It could also herald the establishment of SPL2, or even a merger between the SPL and the SFL, leaving the SFA as the sole governing body.
How would Rangers respond?
The scenario pre-supposes Rangers' guilt in the EBT case, and that the club would not appeal. However, the owners may consider their business plan is better served by at least one season in the first division rather than being consigned to the third, particularly if the other SPL clubs make it clear that the newco vote will go against them.
How would Scottish football respond?
There is something of a compromise in this scenario, but that may make it attractive to most stakeholders. If the broadcast contract, and other commercial deals, can be salvaged top-flight clubs will not suffer themselves for demoting Rangers. The Ibrox club would also be receiving a significant punishment that would act as a deterrent to other teams.
RANGERS DROP INTO THIRD DIVISION
If the SPL clubs vote against the league share transferring to the newco, then Rangers would have no choice but to apply to the SFL. A first division club would be moved up to the SPL – probably Dundee – and the knock-on effect would be an opening in the third division. Other ambitious clubs might also apply, but none could match the revenue-generating power of Rangers.
How would Rangers respond?
For some fans, this is the only way for the club to take control of its own destiny. There would also be a certain drama and novelty of the club fighting its way back to the top-flight. However this might soon wear off if Ibrox is not full every second week and the away support are visiting Scottish football outposts. For the owners, this would be the worst possible outcome, because costs would have to be slashed to maintain the business's suitability in the face of heavily reduced income streams. All the top-rank players would also leave.
How would Scottish football respond?
Supporters of other clubs would be gleeful, and consider this the successful outcome of their campaign to protect sporting integrity. Many of the remaining SPL clubs would suffer, and some would face their own brush with possible administration, and downsizing would be required. The game would, of course, continue. The lower divisions would benefit from the money that Rangers generate – a source who used to work at Sky pointed out that East Stirlingshire v Rangers would generate higher viewing figures than any SPL match not involving Celtic – and Rangers would certainly be purged of the indiscretions of the two previous boards.
RANGERS ARE SUSPENDED OR EXPELLED
Rangers must give notice today, the end of the 21-day appeal period, that they will be appealing Lord Glennie's Court of Session verdict to set aside the registration embargo. If an appeal is not received, then the SFA will reconvene the Appellate Tribunal under Lord Carloway, at which Rangers could accept the registration embargo, or leave the Tribunal to deliberate. The possible sanctions are suspension from the Scottish Cup, suspension of Rangers' SFA membership, or expulsion. A fourth option is a fine, but this has already been imposed on the club.
How would Rangers respond?
Suspension from the Scottish Cup for the forthcoming campaign would be a relief compared to the other, higher sanctions. There is some doubt about how a suspension from membership would work, in terms of timescale, how it would impact on the employment contracts of players and staff, and the like. Expulsion is draconian, so the shrewder choice might be a suspension that is itself suspended for 12 months on condition that all taxes, wages and football debts are paid on time.
How would Scottish football respond?
The loss of Rangers to the game in this country would have a lasting and negative effect. The club deserves to be punished for the misdemeanours of the past, but there must also be some proportionality. There is little point in Scottish football damaging itself in the process, so the wider game might be happier with a Scottish Cup suspension, or a suspension that is itself suspended.
