ONE traditional way of measuring the health of Scottish football was the number of clubs that were still involved in Europe at the turn of the year. These days we tend to be relieved if we have more than one still involved by the end of August, so there has to be some satisfaction to be gained from the fact that here we are in late December and both of our professional rugby teams retain an interest in their respective continental competitions.
Granted, concentrating all your talent into just a couple of sides should make such an achievement easier, but it is one that Glasgow Warriors and Edinburgh Rugby have struggled with all too often in recent years. There is no guarantee whatsoever that they will make it into the quarter-finals of the European Champions Cup and Challenge Cup respectively this season, but as things stand they at least have a fighting chance.
After back-to-back victories against Scarlets, Glasgow have their fate in their own hands in Pool 3 of the premier competition: win their remaining three games and they will go through as group winners. On paper that may sound simple. In reality, with a visit to Racing 92 to come in the second week of the New Year, that may be too tall an order.
The Warriors could lose in Paris and still top the group, but it is more plausible that if they lose that match and win their other two they will finish as runners-up. Which is where it gets interesting, or maybe just perplexing.
For long enough, the Heineken Cup, as it was then called, had a group stage of six pools. Each pool winner plus the two best runners-up went into the last eight, with those runners-up frequently coming from the two pools that included an Italian team. In other words, the luck of the draw played a big part in deciding which pools provided two quarter-finalists.
These days, there is only one Italian team, Treviso, in the Champions Cup, and five pools. Each winner goes through, plus three runners-up.
Pool 4, in which Treviso are bottom with their traditional zero points, could provide one of those runners-up, with Leicester and Stade Francais battling it out to finish top. In Pool 1, in which Oyonnax are last with one point, Saracens and Ulster could both go through.
If that happens, Glasgow would have a one-in-three chance of progressing if they finish second. After they lost their first pool game, at home to Northampton, Gregor Townsend said they would have to win four out of five of their remaining matches to have a chance of going through, and they have done their bit so far by notching up those two wins against Scarlets.
After getting back on track with last week’s home win over London Irish, Edinburgh are a similar position in the Challenge Cup. They have two games to play, against Grenoble and Agen, but even if they win both they are not sure to finish top of Pool 5, which is currently led by Grenoble.
Two of the best-placed runners-up should come from Pools 2 and 3, in which Pau and Calvisano are bottom without a point to their name. Edinburgh can take encouragement from the fact that Agen, with two points, are the next most badly off team. The complicating factor, however, is that London Irish - who also have to play both French sides - will be placed above Edinburgh should both finish on the same number of points, as they outscored the Scots on aggregate over their two head-to-head encounters.
Both Edinburgh and Glasgow will put such considerations aside over the coming days, of course, as they prepare for their double-header in the 1872 Cup. Needless to say, both camps will be going all out to win both matches - ideally, with PRO12 bonus points into the bargain.
But neither Townsend nor his Edinburgh counterpart Alan Solomons will be too unhappy if the teams end up with a win apiece and no significant injury worries. For Townsend in particular, as he aims to take his team into the last eight in continental competition for the first time, it is not the 1872 Cup, but the three European matches which follow it, that are pivotal to the season.
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