HEART of Midlothian could be forgiven for thinking that the normal rules of chance have been suspended in their case when it comes to the Scottish Cup draw. The Tynecastle team will approach their fifth-round home meeting with Hibernian in a confident frame of mind, of course, but it would be understandable if they had hoped for a more novel pairing, and a break in a sequence that must be the toughest given to any club.
Instead, a list of their opponents over the last five years now reads: Celtic, Hibs, Hibs, Celtic, Celtic, Aberdeen, Hibs. Hearts won the first two of those matches, in the semi-final and final back in 2012, but from the latter game up until their weekend victory over Aberdeen they had not scored a goal in the competition, never mind won a match. As was noted by that statistical goldmine of a website, www.londonhearts.com, that was the longest gap between Hearts goals in the cup excluding the two world wars.
Meanwhile, the equivalent of London Hearts for the green side of Edinburgh, ihibs (www.fitbastats.com/hibs), pointed out that it is almost exactly 50 years since Hibs lost to their city rivals at Tynecastle in the cup. That was back in February 1966, when John McNamee got the only goal for the visitors, who lost out to goals from Tommy Traynor and Billy Higgins. The fact the clubs have only met once at Tynecastle in the intervening half-century - a 2-1 win for Hibs in 1971 - has something to do with that, but it is still a good omen of sorts for the Championship club.
So what, I hear you ask, are the overall stats for Scottish Cup meetings between the sides? Of the 31 single games between the two, from December 1877 in the East Meadows to December 2012 at Easter Road, Hearts have won 14 matches, Hibs 10, and seven have been drawn. (Hibs only won one of the replays, incidentally.)
Whichever team emerges victorious on this occasion, the wider significance of the match to Scottish football is that it gives us another chance to compare the relative strengths of our two top divisions. Hibs had the fifth-best run of form in senior European football earlier this season, and although it was pointed out that scores of clubs below them had the slight disadvantage of playing in their own country’s top division, when given the chance, Alan Stubbs’ team have already proven themselves capable of beating Premiership clubs.
They knocked Aberdeen out of the League Cup in September, for example, winning 2-0, and went a goal better two months later in their quarter-final against Dundee United. Their semi-final against St Johnstone is a week before the Hearts match, giving them another chance to measure up against opponents from a higher division.
Whether they win or lose at Tynecastle, Hibs could find the experience invaluable should they be in the Premiership play-off final at the end of the season. Last May Rangers were comprehensively outplayed by Motherwell, losing 6-1 on aggregate to their higher-division opponents. If Hibs find themselves in the final this time, they will surely acquit themselves a whole lot better than that.
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