THE TENNER BET

Deputy Sports Editor

Saturday 16 March 2013

The bookies have been laughing at the Tenner Bet all week at the Cheltenham Festival.

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James Morgan

Not only laughing, but inflicting that manoeuvre beloved of wrestlers and older brothers. In other words, they've been locking my arms in a grip and slapping my face with my own hand.

Well, I have news for the flat-track bullies, I'm the weed in the 1950s cartoon series who has sand kicked over him by a muscle-bound hunk. I'm coming back bigger and, er, badder.

The fools, they've been sneering at me, but all the while taking their eyes off the bigger picture. They have forgotten the Formula One season starts this weekend, and they've clearly forgotten, too, all about the numerous columns that tipped big-priced winners in 2012.So, while the rest of you will be tuning in to Sunday Politics, Songs of Praise, or frankly anything else less boring than the F1, I'll be there watching . . . and waiting.AUSTRALIAN GRAND PRIX We made a significant profit last year out of following the history of races. By that I mean drivers and teams that have previously proved successful at certain venues. If the trend is to continue then this race will go the way of Jenson Button.In fact, so confident was this observer that McLaren would win that an Archimedes-style proclamation was made to Mrs Tenner Bet earlier this week, one which was met with the usual caustic reaction of: "Is he driving at Cheltenham or Melbourne? If it's the former you can stick a quid on for me, too."Hubris is a dangerous thing in gambling and, so, a rethink was called for. Have I really covered every base? Well, it is the start of the season, so there is a certain unknown dimension.The rules have changed (again) to allow more catching up, while tyres will degrade much more quickly and so tactics will play a greater part. The Ferrari is sure to be stronger and there are positive noises coming from Lewis Hamilton and Mercedes and that's before we take the three-time champion Sebastian Vettel and Red Bull into account. Indeed, it took until the eighth race of the last season at Valencia before a pattern emerged and we can realistically expect similar this time around.THE BETWe are still cash rich as it stands and so I'm minded to pick out two bets this weekend. Fast-testing cars have tended to justify the hype in Melbourne, such as Brawn in 2009 and McLaren last year, and this time everyone is talking about Mercedes.Hamilton seems more comfortable away from the politics of McLaren and the Albert Park track will suit cars that perform well in qualification. Indeed, no driver has won the race since 2003 from anywhere other than the front two rows of the grid. It's the start of the season and so I'm minded to steer away from my original pick of Button and go with the evidence of testing.That points to Mercedes finding at least a podium finish. Lewis Hamilton is 9/1 with Boylesports for the win while Nico Rosberg is 5s for a place in the first three.SEASON'S TOTALA loser last weekend, ending a three-win streak, and a tough four days at Cheltenham which produced a negative return have left me in need of some help tomorrow if the £107.72 total is to avoid taking another hammering.

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