The Tenner Bet is nothing if not predictable.
Indeed, if one were to check the archives, one might find that this intro is remarkably similar to a previous column that speculated on just how repetitive the arguments proffered herein tend to be. In other words, the failure of last week's bets on the Australian Grand Prix are not going to prevent an inevitable attempt at finding a winner in Formula One tomorrow when the circus moves to Malaysia for the second week of the season.
Speaking of which, Kimi Rikkonen's win in Melbourne last weekend was entirely predictable in its unpredictability. As speculated, calling a winner in the first race of the year is an onerous task given that we're working from an entirely blank sheet in terms of form.
MALAYSIAN GRAND PRIX
It's time to revert to the proven formula of previous winners having a better than average chance of victory at a particular venue. Yes, Jenson Button has won the race more than any other active driver, but the 1-2-3 in Melbourne all had winning form at Albert Park, albeit Raikkonen won in Ferrari red rather than Lotus black-and-gold.
Fast forward a week and Button, Raikkonen, Fernando Alonso and Sebastian Vettel are the four drivers with at least one victory at Sepang. Of those, the latter has multiple wins with the Spaniard out on his own with three. It is also a circuit at which Ferrari has traditionally excelled with Michael Schumacher also recording three wins here.
Ferrari's modern dominance of the sport has been challenged by Red Bull in recent years and so Vettel's two wins must be taken in the context of them being a relatively new team. And so, 2013 form and the performances in Australia has to be the secondary consideration despite the paucity of evidence it offers.
One thing we do know is that qualification time is likely to be less important this season, not least since Vettel took pole yet did not win – something that rarely happened last season. We also know that Raikkonen can put forward a formidable challenge this time around.
THE BET
The key this weekend is the speed of the track. Where Melbourne was low to medium-paced, Sepang is incredibly fast (yes, yes, it's all relative). That should play into the hands of the Lotus, the Ferrari and the Red Bull with the McLaren dreadfully out of sorts last Sunday.
Traction will also be important and this race will identify very quickly which teams and, specifically, drivers will be competing at the business end of the constructor and driver standings. Vettel looked to have the fastest car but team tactics will be crucial with the poor state of the track surface and the unrelenting heat certain to take a toll on tyres. If Red Bull can get this latter part right – and they usually do – then the general 2/1 on offer about him taking the race for the third time in four years looks the obvious pick.
SEASON'S TOTAL
Two losing bets in last weekend's F1 represent an ignominious return to the medium that has produced an array of winners. I remain ever mindful of the ringmasters promise to feed me to the lions should the increasingly disgruntled visitors to his circus grow weary of my continuing failures. The total is: £87.72
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