You wouldn't spend money on a car if it didn't actually start, nor would you expect to dish out the readies on said scrapper if you hadn't seen it. (Come to think of it, I actually did do this once).
So the same could be said about throwing away money on the outcome of events based on some random figures repeating themselves in the next set of fixtures (or fixture in this case) without having any real idea about what kind of hand you're betting with. I'm referring specifically here to Aberdeen and their failed efforts to defeat St Mirren last Monday evening. Rarely, has this columnist ever been so confident of a winning result than in the minutes before Derek McInnes sent his side out to face a team that has thus far looked as if it is simply waiting for the weekend in which Hearts overturn their 15-point deduction for entering administration before collectively agreeing that the Premiership season has indeed begun.
There was a bet placed minus a goal, a double including Everton, two- and three-nil scorecasts and, yet, within five minutes of kick-off it was apparent that Calvin Zola is no relation of Gianfranco's, Michael Hector is scarier (in defence) than the ghost in Aeneas' dream and, well, that this new-improved Aberdeen look pretty much like bad old Aberdeen. The assessment is, perhaps, a tad unfair but as any punter will tell you all rational thought soon disappears when you're pondering exactly why it was you thought it was a good idea to back a bunch of surrender monkeys. The blame lies entirely with me - I know that. I conveniently ignored Aberdeen's eight draws in their past nine fixtures against the Paisley side while simultaneously thinking that it was okay to blanch over the fact that I assessed goal supremacy figures without measuring it against any other mathematical barometer. Hence, last week's tally of two winning teams, two draws and two defeats. I shall not be making the same mistake twice.
Once again, we're taking goal supremacy as our measure and this time we're using historical data to cross ref against (there is a website for that kind of thing, you know) but it's harder to make a case for more than one multiple bet this weekend, not least with so many evenly matched teams pitted against each other. QPR (5/11 at home to Barnsley) make it on to the coupon for the second successive week but it's merely the putative banker in a treble containing Birmingham City and Mansfield Town - who ended one treble unmercifully early last Saturday by defeating Chesterfield at Saltergate in a noon kick off.
Birmingham have had their problems this season but they have won two of their last three and seem to be on an upward curve since the arrival of Jesse Lingard on loan from Manchester United. He has five goals in three games and City (16/11) can follow on from their impressive 4-0 win over Millwall on Tuesday night with another at home to struggling Bolton Wanderers today.
Elsewhere, Mansfield look solid value at 20/19 when they host Hartlepool, who have won just one of their last six. The treble pays 6.28/1
A double dunter last week means a more conservative punt this weekend. As outlined above the new system might take a few rounds of matches to smooth out the rough edges. The total stands at: £13.40