Every once in a while something happens in life that makes the self-loathing nip just that little bit more.
You know, like discovering the girl you used to walk home at the end of the night is now ripping it up as every top director's belle de jour in Hollywood.
Or driving out of the car showroom in a second-hand Volkswagen when you went in for a new BMW. Or feverishly debating whether to repair the tumble dryer or buy a new one. This is middle-class, middle-aged life in glorious technicolour. The closest you've come to that round the world holiday is a bet on a couple of teams from a league you're not particularly au fait with. The extent of your excitement is using the term au fait - even though you're not exactly sure what it means. And so, the weeks grind on; the self-flagellation continues.
Football teams laugh at you (collectively, of course); the one source of comfort becomes a virtual bed of nails that whisper the results of defeats past as they break the skin. The solution is simply to carry on: drink another cup of coffee, write indecipherable columns, keep taking the medicine. Indeed, it has been a time for sucking up medicine. And then, there's the tricky part of getting back on message. Which is where these come in handy . . .
THE SYSTEM
Now, where was I? Ah, yes, we had a system didn't we? But the problem with systems is that when they are broken we need someone to fix them and if we don't have someone to fix them then well, we're buggered. Not that I think the system is broken . . . yet. But there's clearly something amiss when teams in the lower half of League 2 are dishing out skelpings to teams at the top. That said, the solution is to carry on. To drink another cup of coffee etc. We're sticking with the goal supremacy bet not least because it's logical and about the only thing that is logical and we're still in the lower reaches of the leagues in England and Scotland.
I've picked out three teams and four fixtures in which I think both teams will score. The details are for another day. Suffice to say there is a certain amount of mathematical reasoning which has gone into these selections. The goal supremacy argument has been laid out in previous columns (goals for and against in the past six matches) and they favour Exeter City (49.5% chance of winning based on historical trends), Coventry City (56.8%) and Hamilton Academical (41.7%). At prices of 11/10, Evs and Evs respectively they look like good-value bets.
The both-teams-to-score method has similarly been derived from the past six games during which the named teams have either scored in every game or at least five games and/or have conceded in every game or at least five games. For all eight, the negative occurrence of either is just once. See that's the maths.
THE BET
An Exeter, Coventry and Hamilton treble pays 7.4/1 while a both-teams-to-score quad containing Leyton Orient v MK Dons, Shrewsbury Town v Gillingham, Exeter v Hartlepool and Stenhousemuir v Brechin City pays 7.78/1.
SEASON'S TOTAL
Last week's loser left one feeling like a Kamikaze pilot who has just discovered he's wearing a parachute. Like said pilot, the profit continues to drop - £3.40
Why are you making commenting on The Herald only available to subscribers?
It should have been a safe space for informed debate, somewhere for readers to discuss issues around the biggest stories of the day, but all too often the below the line comments on most websites have become bogged down by off-topic discussions and abuse.
heraldscotland.com is tackling this problem by allowing only subscribers to comment.
We are doing this to improve the experience for our loyal readers and we believe it will reduce the ability of trolls and troublemakers, who occasionally find their way onto our site, to abuse our journalists and readers. We also hope it will help the comments section fulfil its promise as a part of Scotland's conversation with itself.
We are lucky at The Herald. We are read by an informed, educated readership who can add their knowledge and insights to our stories.
That is invaluable.
We are making the subscriber-only change to support our valued readers, who tell us they don't want the site cluttered up with irrelevant comments, untruths and abuse.
In the past, the journalist’s job was to collect and distribute information to the audience. Technology means that readers can shape a discussion. We look forward to hearing from you on heraldscotland.com
Comments & Moderation
Readers’ comments: You are personally liable for the content of any comments you upload to this website, so please act responsibly. We do not pre-moderate or monitor readers’ comments appearing on our websites, but we do post-moderate in response to complaints we receive or otherwise when a potential problem comes to our attention. You can make a complaint by using the ‘report this post’ link . We may then apply our discretion under the user terms to amend or delete comments.
Post moderation is undertaken full-time 9am-6pm on weekdays, and on a part-time basis outwith those hours.
Read the rules hereComments are closed on this article