A few weeks back, this column examined the impact of cause and effect as disseminated in Albert Einstein's famous quotation about repeating mistakes and idiocy.
Having waded through a couple of internet articles on the derivation of the comment one claim stood out: Einstein wasn't the genius he has since been deified as. Yeah, he can have the theory of relativity but that's as far as it went for old Alberto.
Indeed, he spent long periods attempting to create a grand theory during which he was figuratively throwing mud at a wall and seeing what stuck. The Tenner Bet knows how Einstein feels . . . and let me assure you I am no genius.
I did have an original thought recently in which I secretly wished there was a betting website that used algorithms to work out the probability of wins and measured them against bookmakers prices to ascertain whether value was being achieved but, it seems, someone has already beaten me to. So, not quite the original thought I thought it was.
Returning to the theme about repeating mistakes I have vowed this week to do something marginally different - and that is to back away sides in good form across Europe. The bet won't pay as spectacularly as some of recent selections but the putative rationale is that this one might actually pay out.
THE TEAMS
Borussia Dortmund have not had the best of it on their travels this season. They have won just four of nine but there are signs of improvement: they have won two of their last three in all competitions and their victims in that time have included Arsenal and Schalke, clubs with formidable home form.
It has not been a straightforward season for Juergen Klopp's side and they were heavily beaten at home to Bayern last weekend. Although that 3-0 defeat was answered by an imperious performance in midweek against Napoli in the Champions League, domestically they are seven points adrift of Bayern, so there can be no room for further complacency. Despite Mainz enjoying good home form that might just work in Dortmund's favour at the Weserstadion, a venue where they have won their last three.
Closer to home, Cardiff City have been tough opponents at home, losing just twice - to Tottenham and Newcastle - while also beating Manchester City and drawing with Everton and Manchester United. That said, Arsenal have won eight of 10 on their travels and should continue their impressive form. Returning to the continent, another club with fine away form are Atletico Madrid. Diego Simeone's side have lost just once on the road and face an Elche side that have lost two on the bounce at home and have kept a solitary clean sheet.
THE BET
The last twice Dortmund have travelled to Mainz the match has finished 2-1 in their favour. A repeat is 8-1 with Paddy Power. I'm also taking a Dortmund/Arsenal/Atletico treble which can also be found at a best-priced 3.19/1 on Oddschecker.com.
SEASON'S TOTAL
The Tenner Bet still can't quite get over what went on last weekend. A 5-1 defeat for Coventry (who had lost just once at home) against a listless Tranmere Rovers wasn't in the script while Hibernian's hopes were undone by a stonewall penalty shout that was ignored by Steven McLean. Still, four teams from six isn't good enough and we're left looking at this -£96.60 for another week.
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