OVER the past couple of weeks I’ve had a growing belief that Scotland can beat South Africa today and win Pool B. I hate to say it, but seeing the team selections has made me a lot less confident.

Vern Cotter has chosen a team that can be competitive, and that can give the Springboks a lot of problems, but it’s not the one that would have given Scotland the best chance of winning the match. The head coach appears to be looking more towards the Samoa game, and you can understand why: as long as Scotland win that game they will be through to the quarter-finals, whatever happens in this game.

Obviously, without Finn Russell and John Hardie, the team would have been without two of its most influential players in any case, but I thought Cotter would also have gone with other key men such as Mark Bennett and Sean Maitland. Without them, the team is not as strong as it could have been - and not as strong as I’d like it to have been.

Russell in particular will be a big miss. He has been full of energy, confidence and enthusiasm in recent games, and that communicates itself to the whole team.

Having said that, this match is a chance for Duncan Weir to show what he can do, and vary his game more than a lot of people think he is capable of doing. He’s known as a kicking stand-off, but he can attack a line and get his midfield going too, and it’s important that he has the confidence to do that today.

Any coach at a tournament like this, in which games come in quick succession, has a difficult balancing act to perform. If Scotland run South Africa close, perhaps picking up a bonus point, Cotter’s selection will be wholly justified - as it will, needless to say, if we actually win.

But the concern is that if South Africa really go to town on Scotland and inflict a big defeat, it could have a lasting and harmful effect on the squad’s confidence. The knock-on effect of that could then be seen in the Samoa game, and of course if we lose that one as well as today’s match, that’s us out of the competition.

But I hope - and expect - that Scotland will at least not lose too heavily today. There are some big ball-carriers in the pack, such as David Denton, who can take the game to the Springboks, and the selection of Blair Cowan at openside flanker is an indication that the squad should have included two 7s from the start.

The two Grays in the second row are a solid combination, but I must admit I’m not wholly confident in the front row selection. WP Nel is there at tighthead, so why not the other two members of the Edinburgh trio that has become the team’s first-choice front row, Alasdair Dickinson and Ross Ford? However, at least they’re on the bench and can come on to shore up the scrum if things go badly wrong.

This South Africa team looks pretty intimidating. They may have lost their two elder statesmen, Jean de Villiers and Victor Matfield, but to me the balance of the team actually looks better without them. In the second row, Eben Etzebeth and Lood de Jager could mature into a partnership to rival the one that Matfield used to have with Bakkies Botha, while the centre pairing of Damian de Allende and Jesse Kriel looks really powerful - and probably a better blend than a duo containing De Villiers.

Kriel and De Allende are very strong runners, and I do fear a little bit for Richie Vernon in midfield. Thirteen is the hardest place to defend, and Vernon has been isolated at times in that position in the past. He’s a good rugby player and a big strong boy, but if the Springboks centres get up a head of steam he could be in for a long afternoon.

The crucial task for the whole team, not just for Vernon, is to stop the South Africans gaining momentum. Go low and get them on the deck quickly - as Japan showed, that is the key to halting their progress. South Africa are not the quickest up front either, so Scotland must try to move them around a lot, take the big boys on and then try to get them isolated in midfield.

Having said that, the Springboks are still a huge threat. Scotland need to be at the top of their game from first whistle to last if they are to stand a chance of winning.