WALES 27
SCOTLAND 23
IF Scotland play as well against Italy as they did for most of this match, they will win in Rome and avoid extending their Six Nations Championship losing run into double figures. The problem is, of course, that the Italians will have no intention of letting them play to the level they reached in the Principality Stadium on Saturday - and every intention of provoking them into making the same sort of mistakes that cost them an improbable win against the Welsh.
The path of progress never runs smooth, and Scotland are well aware that the game in Rome is likely to be a far less open contest. Wales correctly backed themselves to win a high-tempo, free-flowing game, and that allowed Vern Cotter’s team to be more adventurous and progressive than they had been against England a week earlier. But Italy are unlikely to have much interest in a fluid contest, and will be content to win with a sclaffed drop-goal or any other aesthetically unpleasing effort.
So Scotland, having rediscovered an adventurous running style that kept them in the contest against Wales until close to the end, will now need to find a new way of winning. But whatever style they adopt in the Olympic Stadium, the key to winning will be taking the chances which present themselves, and denying the opposition easy opportunities.
Two of Wales’s three tries could be put into that category, while the other, from Jamie Roberts, stemmed from a Scottish mistake, albeit one down the other end of the field. The first try, from Gareth Davies, owed something to a debatable interpretation of the offside law by both the referee and the Television Match Official, but the scrum-half also availed himself of inattentiveness by his opponents as he seized on a loose ball and ran in the score from near halfway.
It was an ominous start for Scotland, but they fought back well and equalised at the end of a multi-phase move. Finn Russell had the vision to chip diagonally behind the Welsh defence and into in goal; Tommy Seymour the speed to get there and touch down.
Ahead 13-10 at the break, then 16-13 after Greig Laidlaw and Dan Biggar had exchanged penalties early in the second half, Scotland played well to the hour mark and beyond. But, while they dealt well with Wales’ aerial assault - Seymour being outstanding in that respect - they were less assured in the lineout.
With attacking opportunities at a premium, Scotland squandered good position when John Hardie was stripped of possession in the Welsh half, and Tom James ran almost the length of the pitch before being brought down by Duncan Taylor. The Saracens centre had an outstanding game in many respects, but it transpired that his try-saving tackle only delayed a Welsh score.
Piling on the pressure in the set piece, Wales passed up a chance to kick a penalty in front of the posts for a certain three points, and instead opted for a scrum. They won clean ball, maintained the initiative, and three phases later Roberts crashed over.
If there is little that can be done to halt the Welsh centre at his rampaging best, no such plea of mitigation was permissible for the George North try which sealed the game five minutes or so later. The winger ran a clever loop to touch down on the right, but he all too easily found a gap in the defence.
The resolution displayed in the first half when Scotland fought back swiftly after conceding the Davies try was again in evidence in the closing minutes of the second. Taylor, making good use of a decoy run by Hardie up the left touchline, finished strongly to score his team’s second try. Converted by substitute Duncan Weir, that brought the Scots to within four points - far closer than many had expected. But they did not have time to strike again, and even had the game gone on for another ten minutes, Wales looked as likely to score again as they did to concede.
The argument that Scotland are a first-half team who run out of steam late in the game has some evidence to back it up, notably the higher number of errors after the break. But they still recorded ten points in the second half, as opposed to 13 in the first half, so the difference was slight on Saturday. More pertinently, the relative weakness of the bench is exposed as the game wears on: every player tires, but some teams have more dynamic replacements than are available to Vern Cotter.
The coach had already been forced into a late change to his back line before the match as a result of Sean Maitland’s injury in training on Friday, and the back problem that forced Stuart Hogg off after half an hour caused arguably greater disruption. With Ruaridh Jackson on for Hogg, that left only scrum-half Sam Hidalgo-Clyne and stand-off Duncan Weir as backs replacements. An extra centre on the bench would make a big difference, and it will be interesting to see Cotter’s selection once the likes of Matt Scott and Peter Horne are fit again.
The season hangs in the balance now. The promise and ability are there - but Italy will do their utmost to prevent those qualities from being put into practice.
WALES: Tries: G Davies, Roberts, North. Cons: Biggar 3. Pens : Biggar 2.
SCOTLAND: Tries: Seymour, Taylor. Cons: Laidlaw, Weir. Pens: Laidlaw 3.
Referee: G Clancy (Ireland). Attendance: 74,500.
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