ONE game of the regular season to go, and still nearly all to play for. Granted, both Glasgow Warriors and Connacht are already through to the PRO12 play-offs, but make no mistake: when the two teams meet in Galway this afternoon, the outcome could define the season for both.

The momentum is with the Scottish side. Nine consecutive wins have taken them to the top of the table, and in the process they have played with irresistible verve.

But Connacht, the surprise packages of the season, will not be easily beaten. They have secured their place in the last four in the face of persistent predictions that they would start to slide down the table once the bigger clubs got their players back first from the Rugby World Cup and then from the Six Nations. In Pat Lam they have the frontrunner to succeed Gregor Townsend as PRO12 coach of the year when the awards are announced in Dublin tomorrow, and in Bundee Aki and Robbie Henshaw they have arguably the best centre partnership in the league.

The incentive is similar for both teams: win, and they will end the regular season on top of the table with the guarantee of a home semi-final. As Glasgow are two points clear of Connacht, a draw will also be enough for them to finish up in the top two and claim a last-four match at Scotstoun. But if they lose they will probably finish third, which would mean a trip to Leinster, or maybe even back to Connacht.

“It's great, because other results have created a situation where we can finish top,” Townsend said yesterday after naming his team for the match. “We were expecting Leinster and Connacht to win last week” - they both lost - “and it was always a possibility that it didn't happen.

“We win and we get a home semifinal and, yes, the bonus of finishing top would be great after the efforts the players have put in. But it’s going to be a very tough game.

“Whoever we play in the semi is going to be a very good team. You have a slight advantage, especially in terms of history, in getting a home semi-final and that is what we’re working to do.

“Connacht play an expansive style of rugby and have a good home record, so we'll have to produce an 80-minute performance if we're to secure a home play-off. The players have worked extremely hard over the last few weeks and we have genuine competition for places throughout the squad. We are aware of the importance of this fixture and will be doing all we can to come back from Ireland with a win.”

Of course, it will not be long after the final whistle before the coaches of the teams who have come third and fourth start telling a very different tale. Instead of emphasising the importance of a home semi-final, they will tell their squads that statistics are there to be rewritten and records there to be broken. Let’s make history and become the first team to win an away semi-final, they will say.

If Glasgow happen to end up as one of those teams who have to travel in the last four, there is an obvious example for Townsend to point to if he wants to remind his players of how close away teams have come. Last year at Scotstoun, Ulster were just minutes away from reaching the final when a flash of brilliance from Finn Russell put DTH van der Merwe in for a try. Russell himself converted, and Glasgow were through to the final with a 16-14 victory.

The Warriors went on to win the final against Munster far more convincingly, but the fact is that they were very close to not getting there at all. On another night Ulster would have held on for that groundbreaking away win. If it came close to happening then, why should it not actually occur this time round?

After putting out a shadow side for last week’s 70-10 win over Zebre at Scotstoun, Townsend has almost been able to select his strongest starting 15 to play Connacht. The most notable absentee is Henry Pyrgos, who has been ruled out with a neck injury, meaning Ali Price starts at scrum-half with Grayson Hart on the bench.

Peter Horne returns to partner Alex Dunbar at centre, with Mark Bennett dropping to the bench. Finn Russell returns at stand-off in place of Duncan Weir, who converted all ten of his team’s tries last week but is left out of the squad altogether this time round.

“This was certainly the toughest selection we’ve had this season - one of the toughest we’ve ever had to do,” Townsend added. “Players played so well down at Scarlets, one of our best ever victories, and then players played so well at the weekend, but still don't get in the starting team or the 23.”

Glasgow Warriors (v Connacht at Galway Sportsground, today 3pm, live on BBC1): S Hogg; T Seymour, A Dunbar, P Horne, L Jones; F Russell, A Price; G Reid, F Brown, S Puafisi, L Nakarawa, J Gray, R Harley, R Wilson, J Strauss. Substitutes: P MacArthur, J Yanuyanutawa, Z Fagerson, T Swinson, S Favaro, G Hart, M Bennett, S Lamont.

Connacht: T O’Halloran; N Adeolokun, R Henshaw, B Aki, M Healy; A MacGinty, K Marmion; R Loughney, T McCartney, F Bealham, U Dillane, A Muldowney, S O’Brien, J Heenan, J Muldoon. Substitutes: D Heffernan, J Cooney, R Ah You, Q Roux, E McKeon, J Cooney, S O’Leary, P Robb.