Murrayfield, Saturday February 4, the clock ticking towards 5pm.

All pipes and passion in the minutes leading up to the Calcutta Cup clash. The last of the afternoon light now drained from the Edinburgh sky. In the city where international rugby was first played, could there be a better setting than this?

Andy Robinson doesn't think so. Ask him about these occasions and his relish is almost tangible. Ask him about the spine-tingling drama of Test rugby and you'll never again dismiss him as a technician of the game. Robinson is such an international animal that his absence in the years between coaching England and Scotland must have gnawed at his soul.

But what does Stuart Lancaster think of it? And who would have cared a year ago? Lancaster's elevation to the England coaching job represents one of the most astonishing career curves rugby has seen. Even Jose Mourinho moved by degrees from anonymity to sporting celebrity. Lancaster took the express train.

He says his inexperience isn't a factor. "I don't sit in front of the players thinking I shouldn't be here," he says. "I've coached 20 years. I've toured, I've built teams. I've built a Premiership club. There will be an element of respect for the occasion at Murrayfield. But it won't be fear."

Fine words, but can Lancaster say with any certainty that the same will apply to all his players? Fifteen of the 32 he chose for his squad have never played in a Six Nations game. Nine have never played a Test match of any sort. England had a much-needed and overdue clear-out after the World Cup, but they are desperately weak as far as hard-nosed experience is concerned. Their go-to guys have gone.

If their tails are up at Murrayfield then that probably won't matter. A new England could take shape in 80 minutes if their noses are in front at the finish. The raw talent of many of the young players Lancaster has chosen is not a matter of doubt. What Scotland must show them is that raw talent sometimes isn't enough.

Ask someone who knows. Warren Gatland of Wales is the most experienced of the current crop of Six Nations coaches, and he has no doubt that having a few more miles on the clock should be an advantage for Scotland.

"Scotland are capable of winning that game," Gatland says firmly. "England will go up there with new faces, young players who haven't experienced the Calcutta Cup, Murrayfield and the hostility that brings. You get caught out by it. Inexperience catches you out. It is different to anything else."

Scotland lost a lot of experience when Chris Paterson and Nathan Hines retired and when Kelly Brown dropped out with a leg injury last week. Yet six of the players Robinson has chosen for his training squad have more than 50 caps, and not one of Lancaster's squad has passed that mark. The first obligation for Scotland now is to put that accumulated wisdom to good use and ensure that England's tyros feel as uncomfortable as possible next weekend.

The indications from Robinson are that he will select conservatively. His squad reflects the fact that a host of good young players have emerged in Scotland in recent months, but it seems unlikely that any will make their Test debuts in the starting line-up against England. Dave Denton, with one cap, looks to be the likeliest of the coming men to be in the XV, but it would be a major shock if the uncapped Stuart Hogg or Duncan Weir got anything better than a place on the bench.

Where else does Robinson have decisions to make? The fact that neither Al Kellock nor Chris Cusiter seemed to be in the reckoning for the captaincy last week suggests the positions of both are vulnerable. That would suggest Jim Hamilton is again the favourite to join Richie Gray on the second row. Cusiter may still be the first choice at scrum-half, but he has fierce competition from Mike Blair, Rory Lawson and Greig Laidlaw.

Perhaps the strangest aspect of this championship is that it is so hard to predict. The World Cup should have given us a few pointers, but events since have confused the picture. Wales were one of the teams of the tournament in New Zealand, but their sides have toiled in the Heineken Cup and RaboDirect PRO12 league since. Only Ireland seem to have picked up pace.

Canvassing the views of some experienced coaches last week, the only consensus was that Italy will not lift the Six Nations trophy at the finish. Their new coach, Jacques Brunel, is a wily old cove, but his pool of talent is too shallow. As ever, France are the hardest side to second guess. They lurched between brilliant and awful at the World Cup, but they might hope for a rather less turbulent time with the respected hand of Philippe Saint-Andre now on the tiller.

And Scotland? The feelgood factor has been the talk of the sport in these parts over the past few months, with professional teams going well and players committing themselves in droves. It seems almost cruel to point out that there has been optimism aplenty before each of the past five tournaments – and the return was just one win per year.

In 2010 and 2011 those victories came on the last weekends of the championship. Could this be the year for a good start rather than a good finish? Or possibly even both?