Maybe it is fuelled by an idea that if you say something often enough, people will accept it as fact but the Tories’ tiresome claim that they have reduced inflation continues to look laughable.
Chancellor Jeremy Hunt was banging the drum about the Conservatives having brought down inflation in a Budget speech last week that seemed eerily familiar in its messaging.
There are a lot of television re-runs in the early afternoon, and most of them probably look a lot less familiar to those who have seen them before than a Budget from Mr Hunt.
The inflation claim was, of course, part of the familiar routine.
Mr Hunt said: “Of course, interest rates remain high as we bring down inflation.
READ MORE: Ian McConnell: Not even a single mention of the elephant in the room
“But because of the progress we’ve made, because we are delivering the Prime Minister’s economic priorities, we can now help families not just with temporary cost of living support but with permanent cuts in taxation. We do this to give much-needed help in challenging times.”
For the avoidance of doubt, the Bank of England sets interest rates.
It has a 2% target for annual UK consumer prices index inflation set by the Government, but this has been unchanged since a long time before the Conservatives came to power in 2010.
So the “interest rates remain high as we bring down inflation” talk was a most curious interpretation of the situation from the Chancellor.
That is not where the curiousness stopped, however.
Mr Hunt said of inflation on Wednesday: “When the Prime Minister and I came into office, it was 11%. But the latest figures show it is now 4% - more than meeting our pledge to halve it last year.
“And today’s forecasts from the OBR (Office for Budget Responsibility) show it falling below the 2% target in just a few months’ time - nearly a whole year earlier than forecast in the Autumn Statement. That did not happen by accident.
“Whatever the pressures and whatever the politics…this Government, working with the Bank of England, will always put sound money first.”
So what about that “did not happen by accident” declaration.
It happened, of course, in large part because of base-year effects, after the Tories played a not-insignificant part in propelling annual inflation to a 41-year high of 11.1% in October 2022.
It is interesting that Mr Hunt chooses to take the month in which he and Mr Sunak were appointed to their current roles - October 2022 - as the starting point.
However, Mr Sunak was chancellor from February 2020 to July 2022 - a period during which inflation spiralled.
And it would have been incredible, given base-year effects, had inflation not more than halved from 11%.
READ MORE: Scottish airport chief reveals new route talks, big 2024 goal
A scenario in which this did not happen does not bear thinking about - the continuing cost of living crisis is utterly grim as things stand.
Bragging about annual UK consumer prices index inflation of 4%, double the Bank of England’s target, truly beggars belief. Especially given the excruciating price rises that have already been baked in, and are weighing so heavily on households.
The UK’s inflation problem has been much greater than that of many other developed countries. And many experts have highlighted the part which Brexit has played in the UK’s particular inflation woe.
Brexit has played a big part in pushing food prices for hard-pressed households higher.
It has also exacerbated greatly the UK’s skills and labour shortages crisis, fuelling wage inflation.
The claim from Mr Hunt that “this Government…will always put sound money first” is, quite frankly, ridiculous.
READ MORE: Ian McConnell: The great Scottish income tax fantasy
It is the Bank of England which has hiked UK base rates from a record low of 0.1% in December 2021 to 5.25%.
There is, of course, room for debate over the Bank’s decisions on interest rates.
It may be the Old Lady of Threadneedle Street moved too late in starting to raise rates.
Some believe this may have led to rates rising further than was needed.
And it is easy to see the rationale behind arguments that the Bank has gone too far with its rate rises, with the UK economy having tumbled into recession in the final three months of last year.
Former Bank of England Monetary Policy Committee member Danny Blanchflower, writing exclusively in The Herald last June, observed that Brexit and its “devastating” impact on supply chains, especially for food, "sets the UK apart from every other country".
Mr Blanchflower said last June there was a very considerable probability on the basis of the Bank of England’s own forecasts out to 2026 that there would be deflation, and asked: “How can you raise rates with a forecast that says you should be cutting rates? They are out of their minds.”
In contrast, the Tories do not set interest rates but they seem happy enough with the Bank of England’s decisions, even though the UK economy has fallen into recession.
Mr Hunt said on Wednesday: “We understand that tackling inflation, whilst necessary, is painful.
“It means higher interest rates and a period of lower growth.”
It has not looked painful for senior Tories in the Government though, and many might feel they quite simply do not understand at all.
Why are you making commenting on The Herald only available to subscribers?
It should have been a safe space for informed debate, somewhere for readers to discuss issues around the biggest stories of the day, but all too often the below the line comments on most websites have become bogged down by off-topic discussions and abuse.
heraldscotland.com is tackling this problem by allowing only subscribers to comment.
We are doing this to improve the experience for our loyal readers and we believe it will reduce the ability of trolls and troublemakers, who occasionally find their way onto our site, to abuse our journalists and readers. We also hope it will help the comments section fulfil its promise as a part of Scotland's conversation with itself.
We are lucky at The Herald. We are read by an informed, educated readership who can add their knowledge and insights to our stories.
That is invaluable.
We are making the subscriber-only change to support our valued readers, who tell us they don't want the site cluttered up with irrelevant comments, untruths and abuse.
In the past, the journalist’s job was to collect and distribute information to the audience. Technology means that readers can shape a discussion. We look forward to hearing from you on heraldscotland.com
Comments & Moderation
Readers’ comments: You are personally liable for the content of any comments you upload to this website, so please act responsibly. We do not pre-moderate or monitor readers’ comments appearing on our websites, but we do post-moderate in response to complaints we receive or otherwise when a potential problem comes to our attention. You can make a complaint by using the ‘report this post’ link . We may then apply our discretion under the user terms to amend or delete comments.
Post moderation is undertaken full-time 9am-6pm on weekdays, and on a part-time basis outwith those hours.
Read the rules hereLast Updated:
Report this comment Cancel