Analysis
By Gavin Mochan
Amid focus on the First Minister’s route map for easing lockdown restrictions in Scotland, yesterday’s employment data from the Office for National Statistics (ONS) didn’t grab very many headlines, in large part because it simply confirmed what we already suspected.
With the UK Government’s furlough scheme still in place, a subdued increase was expected. In the event, the official unemployment rate in Scotland as of the end of December has been pegged at 4.5 per cent, up one percentage point on the same period a year earlier.
This looks a rather robust result under pandemic conditions, particularly compared to the increase in the UK unemployment rate to 5.1%, the highest in nearly five years.
The lack of a more marked deterioration reflects the effectiveness of furlough, which according to HMRC figures was protecting 3.85 million UK jobs in December. More recent data from the ONS suggests that increased to as many as five million workers by the end of January.
Such numbers have naturally raised worries about the end of furlough support, which is currently due to expire on April 30. But the UK Government has dropped the strongest hints possible that the programme will be extended when Chancellor Rishi Sunak presents his Budget next week, perhaps through to or beyond the provisional June date set by the Prime Minister for the re-opening of the economy in England.
Governments in Edinburgh and London have a lot to do between now and then. Although the vaccination rollout is currently achieving its targets, the runway to completion is longer than the short road left for furlough.
As of February 22, more than 1.44 million people in Scotland had received their first vaccination. The official target is to complete all adult vaccinations by September, with a best-case scenario for completion in the summer.
Meanwhile, job demand continues to tick along at a steady but subdued pace. Approximately 35,000 jobs have been advertised across Scotland during the past four weeks, up 31% on the preceding four weeks but down 33% year-on-year.
Due to the strain on people’s wellbeing, health and social care staff remain in high demand. More than 5,000 roles were needing filled in January, a whopping 59% increase. Demand has continued to rise through February, with about 7,000 vacancies at last count.
Glasgow and Edinburgh account for most of the need, but the Highlands also stand out with a disproportionate 8% of the demand. The urgency for people to join the care sector far outweighs the low availability of people with those skills across a small and dispersed population such as in the Highlands.
These roles cannot be done via Zoom or Teams, so the key will be to encourage workers to move into the area. Local government and businesses will have to really think out of the box to solve that one, but some of the solution might involve enticing young people who have moved away to relocate back to their home towns in a bid to be closer to family following the prolonged separation of lockdown.
Gavin Mochan is Commercial Director at s1jobs
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