Analysis
By Gavin Mochan
A year to the day from the onset of lockdown, yesterday’s employment figures from the Office for National Statistics shed some light on the impact of restrictions on the Scottish jobs market.
Compared to last month’s reading, the country’s unemployment rate edged lower to 4.1 per cent in the period from November to January 2021. This still compares favourably to the UK rate of 5%, which also fell slightly, but it is typical to see a drop in unemployment in the lead-up to Christmas as companies staff up to deal with the festive rush. Given the temporary nature of most of these roles, this looks like a zero-sum game, with unemployment likely creep back up over the first quarter of 2021.
Looking back over the last 12 months, the Covid suppression has seen 43% fewer jobs advertised than the year prior. This has improved more recently, with hiring demand in February stable with that in January – both months showed a decline of 36% year-on-year.
So things are picking up, just not with the acceleration we would want and are unlikely to see until there is a significant easing in restrictions. Demand for staff increased 23% from December to February 2021, a positive trajectory but less than half of the 58% increase a year earlier.
Furthermore, 17% of business in Scotland are still unable to trade at all. Lockdown has wreaked havoc on certain sectors with 67% of accommodation and food service providers closed or restricted to unprofitable operating levels. Arts, entertainment and recreation are only at half-mast.
The variation with sectors such as the scientific, IT, manufacturing, administration or construction industries – all of which continue to trade almost in their entirely – is stark.
Vaccinations and the easing of restrictions will bring respite and hope to the jobs landscape, but the consequences of the pandemic will change the market forever. Companies with e-commerce and automation at their core have prospered, while others are taking the learnings from this dramatic shift.
The irreversible impact of automation will be far-reaching and presents us with morally “new ground”. The latest Future of Jobs Report from the World Economic Forum suggests that the “terminator trend” of the robot revolution will destroy as many as 97 million jobs worldwide. The greatest threat will be to those working in administration, data processing, and finance, and those on the manufacturing line.
The counter-argument is that as many jobs will be created in other areas such as care, big data, the green economy and technology, effectively offsetting all losses. Better-paid jobs would be great, but this only works if we have a plan to reskill our workforce. The skillsets of many of the jobs at risk look unrecognisable to those to be gained, and the transfer of know-how won’t happen naturally.
Gavin Mochan is Commercial Director at s1jobs
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