By Scott Wright
THE Scottish retail sector has highlighted “tentative signs of recovery” after reporting its best sales figures for six months in January. But industry body the Scottish Retail Consortium warned that shop owners face “immense headwinds” in the shape of “high inflation, rising public policy costs and stretched household finances”.
Total retail sales decreased by 7.9 per cent in January compared with January 2020, when they had increased by 1.3%, figures published today by the SRC reveal.
The January sales figure was above the three-month average decrease of 11.6% and 12-month average decline of 10.8%, the Scottish Retail Sales Monitor found. And the survey said the January performance was a 5.1 percentage point improvement on December’s, as well as being the lowest year-on-two-year decline since July last year.
Sales comparisons are made on a two-year basis to peg performance against pre-pandemic levels.
The SRC said the January figures show that Scottish retail is “edging back” to pre-pandemic levels.
Ewan MacDonald-Russell, head of policy at the SRC, said: “January saw the best Scottish sales figures in six months as shops kicked off 2022 with tentative signs of a recovery. Whilst these figures are littered with caveats – the value of sales remain nearly eight percent below pre-pandemic figures and are bolstered by inflation – it’s nonetheless welcome to see an improving performance after a dreadful end to 2021.”
He added: “It’s too early to tell if this is the start of a shopping revival in Scotland, but these figures will provide a little respite for a shattered retail industry. Nonetheless, there are immense headwinds battering stores right now, with high inflation, rising public policy costs, and stretched household finances all making trading difficult. Hopefully there will be brighter skies ahead, but it looks it will be sometime until we arrive there.”
The SRC said the sales figures are not adjusted for inflation, and acknowledges a “portion of the sales growth will be reflection of rising prices rather than increased volumes”. Annual UK consumer prices index inflation rose to 5.4% in December, and is now forecast by the Bank of England to peak at 7.25% in April.
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