LANDMARK reports on the threat of climate change have led campaigners to intensify calls for curbs on oil and gas activity just as the awful Russian assault on Ukraine has underlined the value of the North Sea industry.
On Monday the influential Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change warned in its sixth assessment that time was fast running out to achieve the reductions in emissions required to prevent an irreversible catastrophe.
“This report is a dire warning about the consequences of inaction,” said Hoesung Lee, Chair of the IPCC. “It shows that climate change is a grave and mounting threat to our wellbeing and a healthy planet.”
He added: “To avoid mounting loss of life, biodiversity and infrastructure, ambitious, accelerated action is required to adapt to climate change, at the same time as making rapid, deep cuts in greenhouse gas emissions.”
Mr Lee underlined the risk that the global poor could bear the brunt of the problems resulting from inaction, noting: “So far, progress on adaptation is uneven and there are increasing gaps between action taken and what is needed to deal with the increasing risks, the new report finds. These gaps are largest among lower-income populations.”
Friends of the Earth Scotland said the IPCC report gave a “stark reminder of the urgency of the climate crisis and the need to transform economies away from fossil fuels to avert its worst impacts”.
UN Secretary-General Antonio Guterres found time amid trying to marshall an international response to the unfolding Ukraine crisis to highlight the report, and to lay responsibility for the emissions problem on the fossil fuel industry.
“One of the report’s core truths is that coal and other fossil fuels are choking humanity” said the Secretary-General in a press release. He said all G20 governments must live up to their agreements to stop funding coal abroad, and must urgently do the same at home and dismantle their coal fleets.
Warning that oil and gas giants – and their underwriters – are also on notice, Mr Guterres added: “You cannot claim to be green while your plans and projects undermine the 2050 net-zero target and ignore the major emissions cuts that must occur this decade. People see through this smokescreen.”
Mr Guterres insisted that now is the time to accelerate the energy transition to a renewable energy future, declaring that fossil fuels are a “dead end for our planet, for humanity, and yes, for economies”.
The report made challenging reading for supporters of the oil and gas industry.
It came days after the latest contribution to the debate by the Climate Change Committee, which advises the UK and devolved governments on emissions targets and reports on progress, raised awkward questions for North Sea firms.
In its response to the consultation on the UK Government’s proposal to add a Climate Compatability Checkpoint to the North Seal oil and gas licensing regime the CCC said it would support a tighter limit on production, with stringent tests and a presumption against exploration.
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The Committee observed: “An end to UK exploration would send a clear signal to investors and consumers that the UK is committed to the 1.5°C global temperature goal. That would also help the UK in its diplomatic efforts to strengthen climate ambition internationally.”
Friends of the Earth Scotland gave the report a warm welcome. Its Just Transition Campaigner Ryan Morrison said: “In advising Ministers to support a tighter limit on oil and gas production and a presumption against exploration, the UKCCC are adding their voice to the growing chorus urging the UK Government to end its plans to expand the supply of climate-wrecking oil and gas.”
The organisation also said the committee’s response to the consultation undercut the arguments for UK oil and gas expansion by stating that expanding UK fields will have marginal impacts on prices for consumers, and that UK oil fields take on average 28 years from granting an exploration licence to development.
The response was made public on Thursday, the day Russia launched a full invasion of Ukraine.
The CCC made an observation that neither Friends of the Earth Scotland or Greenpeace referred to in press releases issued about the committee’s input to the licensing review.
The committee noted: “However, we recognise that there are additional important considerations, such as on energy security, that extend beyond the CCC’s statutory remit.”
Russia’s invasion of Ukraine has been followed by a dramatic increase in oil and gas prices, the results of which will weigh heavily on the poor.
This came on top of the strong rise in gas prices seen last year as the recovery from the pandemic fuelled demand.
READ MORE: ScottishPower feels gas price impact as windfarm output drops
The real prospect of supplies being disrupted has underlined the huge risk involved in Europe relying on Russian output to meet so much of its energy needs.
The UK may only import a limited amount of gas directly from Russia but it has to source an increasing share of what it uses on international markets.
With the prospect of years of uncertainty on global energy markets, there is an obvious incentive to maximise the potential of the remaining reserves in the North Sea. Increased North Sea production may not have a massive impact but it will help.
Moreover, the CCC underlined that cuts in UK production may not actually result in a reduction in total emissions.
It said: “UK extraction has a relatively low carbon footprint (more clearly for gas than for oil) and the UK will continue to be a net importer of fossil fuels for the foreseeable future, implying there may be emissions advantages to UK production replacing imports.”
While the CCC said the extra gas and oil extracted will support a larger global market overall, it noted: “Whereas the evidence against any new consents for coal exploration or production is overwhelming, the evidence on new UK oil and gas production is therefore not clear-cut.”
Both BP and Shell are looking to divest their Russian businesses in response to the invasion of Ukraine. The giants may be ready to increase investment in the North Sea, which both have described as a core area, and should be encourage to do so in a responsible way.
That does not necessarily mean approving big greenfield oil developments such as Cambo off Shetland, although they could generate lots of jobs.
There is a huge amount of gas to be produced in areas where there is already plenty of infrastructure in place.
READ MORE: Shell boss says giant is eyeing North Sea gas developments following Cambo U-turn
Platforms and pipelines that might otherwise be decommissioned could be utilised by firms to complete relatively low impact developments quickly.
While we need to develop new lower carbon energy sources as quickly as possible, continued investment in oil and gas will not necessarily slow that process in the way that critics appear to suggest.
Firms such as Neptune Energy, which operates the giant Cygnus gas field, have underlined the potential to adapt facilities to help in the implementation of carbon capture and storage schemes that could play a key role in the drive to cut emissions.
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