Peak rail fares are to be scrapped. ScotRail made the big announcement this month to a pretty receptive audience - as indeed you’d imagine with the news of significantly cheaper commutes.

But while this six-month trial has been hailed by the train company as a "hugely exciting opportunity for Scotland’s Railway’" it has not been received with the same level of excitement by those in the bus industry. Because it is exactly that: an opportunity for Scotland’s Railway – not for greener travel, not to improve our public transport offering as a whole, or to help our network to run more smoothly.

On the surface, the peak fares trial is great news. Scotland has ambitious net zero targets to hit, and there are huge carbon savings to be made if we can encourage more people out of their cars and onto public transport. And, in the middle of a cost of living crisis, reducing costs can remove barriers to travel. But where will this additional patronage come from? Can we guarantee that more people will leave their cars at home to take the train to work? Or will we instead see those who are taking bus, already making green decisions, take the train instead because it has become - temporarily - marginally cheaper?

Read more: Peak fares Scotland: Dates removal pilot will take place revealed

Our post-Covid recovery numbers are strong, with 90% of passengers back on buses after years of lockdowns and working from home. Train’s numbers haven’t told the same story, with a passenger return of around 70%. But rather than trying to boost numbers by specifically targeting those who use their cars frequently, this trial is so broad-brush that we are likely to see a shift in passengers from bus to rail. It risks cannibalising one form of public transport for another, as good, affordable transport already exists in many areas where train and bus overlap. And if one option is a little cheaper than the other, people will vote with their feet.

The issue with this is that bus services may need to be adjusted to match reduced demand - and any adjustment will have a ricochet effect on the wider bus network. For some areas, it will become difficult to hop-on and hop-off different routes. Meanwhile, other areas may be left with inadequate service levels when demand returns following the reinstatement of peak fares. Regrettably, we are now having to pay close attention to the bus routes which may be impacted by this trial.

But our situation is a lot more difficult than having the pending possibility of needing to change the routes or frequency of affected services, and that difficulty lies in the uncertainty of this trial. The removal of peak fares is temporary. It’s an expensive trial for Transport Scotland and, at this point, we don’t know if it will be deemed a success. Nor do we know if they’ll find the significant funds needed to make this permanent for ScotRail, whether it’s successful or not.

Either scenario presents an entirely different set of circumstances for bus operators - and for our passengers. At the moment, we’re struggling to plan for the future in the way we’d like to. Providing a public service as a private company gives us great capability to use our expertise and invest heavily in Scotland’s transport system – as indeed we have done with our progress in electrifying our fleet across Scotland and innovative Tap On Tap Off customer payment solutions that are far more advanced than other transport modes. But being able to plan is vital.

Will we need to fully replan our network for different customer needs? Or, will we have to bend and flex to a short-lived disruption, suffer financial loss, change the makeup of our network, and see the few who do need to continue to use the bus suffer? Because that is yet another concern about this trial: the most vulnerable could suffer. So, for senior citizens or under 22s who rely on concession passes, or for those who travel shorter distances that can’t be matched by rail, their affordable and reliable mode of transport is at risk.

It seems the effect these plans will have on bus operations hasn’t been considered; we’re once again reminded that our public transport in Scotland is viewed as "train" and "bus". Without vision, collaboration and greater partnership of what different operators are offering the Scottish public, we will only ever be able to improve our respective offerings, and not genuinely transform connectivity across towns and cities for the better. But transformation is precisely what is needed in today’s climate emergency. There is no time for quick fixes, and we can’t solve problems in isolation. We need a coordinated approach if we’re serious about bringing real, lasting change to Scotland’s transport network.

Duncan Cameron is Managing Director at First Bus Scotland