As in every other walk of British existence, weather watching is a major occupation in racing.
Every pundit, owner and trainer involved in the first big handicap of the Turf season, the Lincoln Handicap at Doncaster, has been studying the forecasts, what effect they would have on the draw and the horses whose chances would be enhanced or otherwise by the time the 22 runners line up this afternoon.
Previous records at the track when the ground was good to soft or softer seem to indicate that a low draw is helpful, but without the word "soft'' in the description, higher-drawn horses are favoured.
As the going now seems to be a combination of good and good to soft, we are all left flapping about in our meteorological maze. Maybe we should just try to pick the winner - sometimes it works.
There is a great irony that rarely is seen in sport, when the candidate favoured by most backers, Zaahid, was unable to get into the race as too many better-rated horses kept him out of the line-up. He now goes for the consolation prize, the William Hill Mile, for which, naturally, he will be favourite.
It is not easy even to predict who will be the market leader in the Lincoln, which returns to Doncaster after two years at Newcastle, while the other track was being refurbished.
There are few shrewder trainers than Michael Jarvis when it comes to big handicap successes, and his Prince Forever, who is lightly raced, goes on most surfaces and is among those well backed, has to be a major player. The slight doubt is about the mile trip as he has run over seven furlongs to date.
Mark Tompkins has two genuine challengers in Smokey Oakey and Babodana, the latter having won this in 2004. There is more confidence behind Smokey Oakey, who spreadeagled his opponents in a competitive handicap at Ayr on his final race of last term.
The first two home last year, Very Wise and Rio Riva, meet again, and although it is a different course, they ought to run well again. The winner was drawn high last time and the runner-up low. The same applies again today but what effect, if any, the draw will have is uncertain. Rio, 6lbs better off for a length beating, may be the better bet.
Vitznau and, in particular, Raptor appeal as likely candidates, too, but all of them could find the Irish raider, Little White Lie (4.00), a formidable opponent. The Ger Lyons-trained gelding has travelled to England once before, to Epsom in June when he was second to Vitznau over seven furlongs on good-to-soft ground. He meets that horse on 15lbs better terms and, while Vitznau has progressed, the Irish raider, who had a warm-up race at Dundalk earlier in the month, looks well treated.
Zaahid is going to be the warm market fancy in the consolation race, but it has proved an even tougher race for favourites than the main event, and there are so many who could make life difficult for the Barry Hills-trained horse.
Plum Pudding, Orchard Supreme and Don't Panic are just three but maybe old-timer Partners In Jazz (2.50), who won at Southwell in January, can beat his juniors again.
The new Scottish team of Linda Perratt and Ian Semple have their first runner in the Cammidge Trophy with Appalachian Trail, who ran well in Nad Al Sheba and will probably find conditions to his liking, while Ayr Gold Cup winner Advanced and Knot In Wood are two others in with prospects, However, Rising Shadow (3.25), the winner last year, can win again. Selections Doncaster 2.50 Partners In Jazz, 3.25 Rising Shadow, 4.00 Little White Lie Haydock 3.00 Bremen
Why are you making commenting on The Herald only available to subscribers?
It should have been a safe space for informed debate, somewhere for readers to discuss issues around the biggest stories of the day, but all too often the below the line comments on most websites have become bogged down by off-topic discussions and abuse.
heraldscotland.com is tackling this problem by allowing only subscribers to comment.
We are doing this to improve the experience for our loyal readers and we believe it will reduce the ability of trolls and troublemakers, who occasionally find their way onto our site, to abuse our journalists and readers. We also hope it will help the comments section fulfil its promise as a part of Scotland's conversation with itself.
We are lucky at The Herald. We are read by an informed, educated readership who can add their knowledge and insights to our stories.
That is invaluable.
We are making the subscriber-only change to support our valued readers, who tell us they don't want the site cluttered up with irrelevant comments, untruths and abuse.
In the past, the journalist’s job was to collect and distribute information to the audience. Technology means that readers can shape a discussion. We look forward to hearing from you on heraldscotland.com
Comments & Moderation
Readers’ comments: You are personally liable for the content of any comments you upload to this website, so please act responsibly. We do not pre-moderate or monitor readers’ comments appearing on our websites, but we do post-moderate in response to complaints we receive or otherwise when a potential problem comes to our attention. You can make a complaint by using the ‘report this post’ link . We may then apply our discretion under the user terms to amend or delete comments.
Post moderation is undertaken full-time 9am-6pm on weekdays, and on a part-time basis outwith those hours.
Read the rules hereComments are closed on this article