It is possible that this will be the day when the Ballydoyle bandwagon is brought to a halt, at least temporarily. The big hope of the Aidan O'Brien stable for the King George and Queen Elizabeth Stakes, Duke of Marmalade, has a genuine question mark against his name. Brilliant though he has been this season, the Duke has yet to tackle a mile-and-a-half, the distance of today' Group 1 contest, and on breeding there has to be a doubt if he will last it out.
If there is a flaw in his stamina then there are a few of his opponents who could take advantage, in particular Lucarno, Youmzain, Papal Bull and Macarthur.
The last named is a stablemate of Duke of Marmalade, as is Red Rock Canyon who seems to be in there as pacemaker. Macarthur, on the other hand, is winner over this trip, a very smart horse in his own right and a winner of Group 2 and 3 races this season. Papal Bull, who is also a Group 2 and 3 winner, was beaten by St Leger winner Lucarno over this trip at Newmarket but the winner's jockey, Jimmy Fortune, seemed to steal that race with a clever front-running tactic.
Then there is Youmzain, who had begun to look like a best man and never a groom until he beat a strong field in the Grand Prix de Saint-Cloud and is now looking the real deal.
That day he overtook O'Brien's Soldier of Fortune to get up close home and he might well catch and beat another O'Brien star today.
The race may be a tactical affair, as so many others have been this term but, for me, Duke of Marmalade (4.20) has run as if he would stay this trip well enough and can add to the O'Brien Group 1 collection.
There are plenty of choices among the 28 runners for each-way backers in the Tote International Handicap and, bearing in mind that the shortest-priced winner in the past 10 years was a 15-2 chance, going for a win and place could be the route to take.
The long-time favourite, Redford, who is very highly thought of, may well break the failure record of market first choices as, whatever happens today, he is expected to go on to Group status in the near future.
Among the many others to consider are two lively Scottish candidates, Dhaular Dhar, from the Jim Goldie yard, and Burnwynd Boy, trained by Linda Perratt, while any one of the Mark Johnston quartet can be fancied.
Pipedreamer (3.15) has been knocking at the door in Group company and may get an answer this time in the Sky Bet Stakes at York. Selections Ascot 2.35 Danidh Dubai 3.05 Navajo Joe 3.40 Lovelace 4.20 Duke of Marmlade York 2.40 Boucheron 3.15 Pipedreamer 3.45 Express Wish
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