There have now been 18 successive monthly increases in unemployment, making it highly likely that General Election year will see numbers out of work climb to three million. But there is evidence that the public sector is cushioning the effect of the downturn.
Young people are bearing the brunt of the recession, with unemployment among those aged 16-24 rising to 947,000 -- a rate of 19.7% which is the highest since records began. Employment Minister Jim Knight admitted: "We must all play a part in making sure we don’t lose a generation."
The full breakdown for young adults in Scotland will not be available until next month’s figures. But among those designated "economically inactive" -- those unemployed but not seeking work because of sickness, disability, retirement, domestic commitments or being in education -- there was a sharp rise year-on-year of 8% among young adults, indicating that many are staying on at college or university because of the tough jobs market.
Scottish unemployment rose by 11,000 over the last three months to 187,000, an increase of 75,000 on last year, giving a rate of 7% which is catching the UK rate of 7.9%. This was reflected in a rise of 2200 in the claimant count, taking the number on Jobseeker’s Allowance to 132,900 -- up a huge 53,000 on last year.
The number of Scots in work fell by 23,000 over the previous quarters and by 57,000 over the year, giving total employment below 2.5 million -- less than half the population of the country.
The annual fall by 2.4% in the number of jobs varies greatly by sector. The fall in the agriculture, forestry and fishing sector was 15.7% (5000 jobs lost), in manufacturing it was 6% (13,000), construction 4.1% (6000), and in distribution, transport, finance and business services it was 3.6% (40,000) -- reflecting the turmoil in the financial sector. In mining, energy and water supplies the loss was 2.5% (1000).
However, in the education, health, public administration and other services sector -- which includes but is not restricted to the public sector -- there were 7000 jobs created (up 0.8%).
Scottish Secretary Jim Murphy said the figures showed the true cost of global economic conditions. "In the midst of all the talk of economic recovery, no-one should lose sight of the fact the recession is still having a real impact on families, particularly those on modest and middle incomes," he said. "Our priority is to help maintain employment wherever possible and, where jobs are lost, to get people back into work as soon as we can. It is undoubtedly a challenge but it is one I am confident we can face if we work together."
Enterprise Minister Jim Mather said the Scottish Government’s recovery plan was supporting 15,000 jobs and he said Scotland continued to have higher employment, lower unemployment and higher rates of economic activity than the UK as a whole.
He said: "We have accelerated major infrastructure investment, and it is crucial that we are able to continue this good work. Therefore, we are urging the Chancellor to use his pre-Budget report to allow us to accelerate capital spending into 2010-11."
Shadow Scots Secretary David Mundell said: "Unemployment in Scotland is up over 65% on a year ago. That’s over twice the rise that some areas of the UK have experienced."
At the TUC conference, general secretary Brendan Barber said: "There are now over a million people out of work for more than six months, more than one in three of them under 25. There are no signs of recovery here."
Sean Figg, of campaign group Youth Fight for Jobs, said: "Gordon Brown and David Cameron are calling for massive cuts in public spending -- this will clearly have an impact on young people, especially those unlucky enough to be unemployed."
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