FOUR days after Pakistan's coalition government moved to impeach President Pervez Musharraf, the former soldier's political career is hanging in the balance. In the combined houses of parliament there are 442 seats, and to get the necessary two-thirds majority the plotters will have to convince 295 members this is the right thing to do. If they are successful - and the vote could come as early as tomorrow, Musharraf's 65th birthday - it will be the first time in Pakistan's history that a political leader has faced impeachment.

Coalition leaders Asif Ali Zardari, the widower of murdered former prime minister Benazir Bhutto, and Nawaz Sharif, another former prime minister, are hopeful the numbers will stack up.

"We are very confident of a clear win on numbers game," said Sherry Rehman, the information and broadcasting minister and the main spokesperson for those seeking impeachment. "We have not come this far without doing our parliamentary homework."

On paper it certainly appears possible. Even before the move was made those opposed to Musharraf had 274 votes - 235 in the National Assembly and 39 in the Senate - but they will pick up support from the 27 independents, many from the tribal areas, and others unhappy with Musharraf's stewardship of the country. The first stage will see the president - who has been blamed for the present economic and political instability and acute management failings - seeking a vote of confidence from the country's four provincial assemblies. If this fails, the coalition will begin impeachment proceedings.

Although the threat has caused consternation in Pakistan and is being viewed abroad as a threat to the country's stability, those bringing the charges are confident this is the best way forward.

"The president's impeachment is a historic moment," claimed Rehman. "I don't see any use of anti-democratic move, it's a smooth transition from dictatorship to real democracy."

Faced by the challenge to his presidency, Musharraf's options are limited and time is not on his side. His supporters would prefer him to fight his corner by making a legal challenge to the impeachment process. A close aide in Musharraf's Pakistan Muslim League-Quaid, said this had to be the president's first consideration. "This impeachment is a democratic, political battle," he said. "He has right to defend himself, he has right to fight back. And we feel that he has a lot of support within the parliament."

However, the aide also conceded that taking this course of action could plunge the country into greater uncertainty and add to Musharraf's unpopularity.

Last March, Musharraf caused nationwide resentment when he sacked Iftikhar Chaudhry, a highly respected independent judge who had challenged the government on several sensitive issues, including the treatment of terrorists. Following protests, the judge was restored to office but dismissed again under an emergency order at the end of the year. It was not the end of the matter: the way Chaudhry had been treated led indirectly to the defeat of Musharraf's supporters in parliament earlier this year.

As a result, Musharraf no longer enjoys widespread support and has lost the "strongman" appeal which brought him into office in 1999. That lack of a power base might lead him to stand down voluntarily rather than face a drawn-out and possibly humiliating legal process. That was the wish voiced by most of Pakistan's media on Friday, but sources close to Musharraf countered by saying that resignation was not on the agenda. "We are going to oppose it," said Tariq Azim, who served as a minister in an earlier Musharraf administration and will be central to any fightback. "It is a half-baked effort and a sure recipe for disaster."

If that line is adopted, Musharraf will come under pressure from his supporters to tough it out by using his presidential powers to dismiss the coalition and appoint a new administration. This would be a high-risk strategy, though, not just because Musharraf is widely unpopular but because it would depend on the support of the army. Ironically, the president came to power as an army general but was forced to exchange his uniform for a politician's suit and it is now by no means certain if the army would move in his favour.

SO far, his successor as chief of the army's general staff, General Ashfaq Kiyani, has given no indication of where his sympathies lie. He was hand-picked by Musharraf and remains close to him, but during his period in office the general has taken steps to keep the army out of the nation's political life. The most likely scenario is that the generals will watch and wait before making any decision. Kiyani does not want to see a former military colleague humiliated but he has to be careful about how the army is used.

Following Pakistan's realignment with Washington in the wake of the 2001 terrorist attacks, the army is seen as an instrument of repression and there are still doubts about its relationship to the Inter-Services Intelligence agency (ISI), which is thought to have links with al-Qaeda and the Taliban. At the very least the generals might only intervene to force Musharraf to dissolve parliament then create a caretaker administration to hold elections within an agreed period.

Throughout Pakistan's history, the army has played a decisive role in the country's affairs, and many feel it could again hold the key to what happens in the next few days. So far, Washington has insisted the impeachment is an internal matter for the Pakistanis, but the US will be watching intently. Pakistan is a key player in the war against terrorism and many US commanders believe the key to success is to be found in the tribal areas abutting the Afghan border.

"There's a trust deficit here," admitted a US army source. "There's been too much double-handed dealing between ISI and the Taliban. Musharraf didn't sort it out, we need a guy who can."