It was always difficult to make sense of what was going on in North Korea. Now it's equally impossible to know what has happened to the country's mysterious president, Kim Jong-il. According to the kaleidoscope of reports from the capital, Pyongyang, the self-styled Beloved Leader could be dead, he could be recovering from a stroke, he could have survived brain surgery or he might already be dead and the current Kim could be an impostor. Faced by those conflicting rumours it would be all too easy for the spirit of the age to lose the will to live, yawn, turn over and think about other things.

That should be resisted. Depending on one's point of view, Kim is either a figure of fun fit only for ridicule or a ghastly old dictator whose come-uppance is long overdue. Either way, his demise will cause all manner of problems for his neighbours and for the US, all of whom have been none too happy about the country's capacity to develop nuclear weapons.

The most likely scenario is that Kim suffered a stroke and that this was followed by brain surgery. A similar fate befell his father, Kim Il-sung, in 1994, the apoplexy apparently triggered by his son's increasingly reckless and lurid behaviour. His death allowed Kim Junior to become the first hereditary Communist leader.

His time in power has hardly been wreathed in glory. North Korea is Mad Max territory, where at least 10% of the population has died of starvation. The infrastructure is a joke; millions of dollars have been wasted on needless military expenditure; it is suspected of sponsoring terrorism and two years ago it conducted its first nuclear test. Throughout those long years of neglect Kim showed an unwholesome appetite for the high life, rewarding himself with fine food and wines and enjoying a string of mistresses while the people went hungry.

All this could be corrected if there were a reliable succession, or if the outside world could get any inkling of what's going on inside this secretive and paranoid oligarchy. But that's not the case. Not only is next to nothing known about Kim's clan - the most reliable guide came from the memoirs of one of his Japanese chefs - but it is also obvious that none of his three sons has been groomed to take over from him.

Indeed, one of them, the eldest, Kim Jong-nam has already been written off as a loser. His legitimacy has never been recognised - his mother was a divorced actress - and he caused huge embarrassment a few years ago by trying to escape to Japan using a fake Dominican passport. The other two aren't much better and have been kept well away from the limelight.

As the names and reputations of most North Korean politicians are a state secret, it's impossible to divine who might take over should Kim's condition worsen. In any authoritarian state the succession always causes difficulties, but in North Korea's case the matter is exacerbated by the fact that the country has been playing cat-and-mouse over its development of nuclear technology. As the army is the most likely organisation to step into the breach in the event of Kim's demise - think a military-style junta along the lines of that seen in Burma - there would be inevitable tensions over the nuclear issue.

As a rule soldiers don't like giving up their toys and North Korea's military are no exception. Having produced sufficient enriched uranium to build up to a dozen nuclear bombs - and having also developed the missiles to deliver them - the country's generals will not willingly give them up. If the arsenal falls into their hands, it will be bad news for neighbouring South Korea, which is still officially an enemy, and for Japan, which is regarded as being too close to the US for its own good.

In recent years both countries have been doing their level best to come to an accommodation with North Korea by offering aid in return for pledges to halt nuclear development, but it's been to little avail. Progress has always been followed by recalcitrance and Japan was right to be suspicious of Pyongyang's last round of promises earlier this summer. But what saved everything was Kim himself. He might have been a so-and-so, but at least he had become easy to read. Now the certainties are far from clear and without North Korea's Beloved Leader, southeast Asia will be a far less stable place.

Still, it's not all bad news - ever since the rumours started flying around about Kim's condition, North Korean television has been broadcasting tips about how to avoid a stroke and what steps to take should one happen. Now, that's entertainment.