Like it or lump it, it's time, once again, to indulge in a little speculation about which Scottish restaurants might be winners and losers in the new edition of the Michelin restaurant guide, due to be published on Thursday.
Surely, this year, there must be a bit of movement after last year's disappointing result, when the status quo stuck as stubbornly as a piece of burnt sugar to the bottom of the pan?
Let me stir things up a bit. Wouldn't it be something if Andrew Fairlie were finally to gain his much-anticipated third Michelin star, especially in the year in which he will cook for the world's top golfers and celebrities during the Ryder Cup at Gleneagles?
You may think a third star is far-fetched, given that only four UK establishments have that top honour. But Fairlie's profile has been steadily rising: at the helm of Scotland's only two-star restaurant, he's highly respected by the influential Roux brothers Albert and Michel (and indeed was the very first Roux scholar), regularly cooks with London's top chefs, and I happen to know that Clare Smyth, head chef at the three-star restaurant Gordon Ramsay at Royal Hospital Road in London, often eats chez Fairlie.
I believe many of London's two-star establishments aren't a patch on Fairlie's, and it's high time the Michelin inspectors got out of the English capital a bit more. That sense of frustration was clear last September at the launch of the current guide, for nothing had changed in Scotland - leaving us with 15 single-starred restaurants, none of them in Glasgow - and we were landed in the type of stasis doctors might describe as chronic constipation.
Why shouldn't Fairlie get a third star? One reason I can think of is it would open up the possibility that one or more of Scotland's single-starred restaurants might have to be given a second in order to avoid a yawning - and embarrassing - gap in the Scottish culinary landscape.
But which Scottish restaurant deserves a second star? There's a tantalising question. Ask any Edinburgh foodie and they'll immediately say Dominic Jack of Castle Terrace, or Tom Kitchin of The Kitchin. Or The Herald Magazine's Martin Wishart, who goes about his business (actually, his three businesses) in a less frantic manner than some, and continues to prove it's possible to blend innovation with consistency of quality in the kitchen of his eponymous Leith restaurant. It remains to be seen if his second restaurant at Cameron House, Loch Lomond, will retain its star under head chef Graeme Cheevers.
Likewise, staff at the five-star Relais & Chateaux Glenapp Hotel at Ballantrae, in South Ayrshire, will no doubt be hoping it retains its star under new head chef Matt Worswick, who joined in January and inherited the accolade secured in 2011 by his predecessor Adam Stokes.
Rumours that Charles Lockley had left his position as head chef at the Michelin-starred Boath House at Auldearn, near Nairn, thus putting its star at risk, are completely unfounded. Lockley remains firmly in post (it was his sous-chef who left) with renewed vigour as head of a talented and enthusiastic young team.
Elsewhere, there has been no change of top personnel at Scotland's single-starred restaurants since last year. Consistency and commitment are two of the criteria the Michelin inspectors are understood to like, although it's not necessarily the case that just because the same chef has been at the helm for years he'll eventually get a star.
There has been a bit of movement bubbling underneath the radar, though. Craig Sandle, who maintained the star at Number One at Balmoral in Edinburgh for nine years, has been executive chef at Pompadour By Galvin at the Caledonian Waldorf Astoria hotel since last June, and is attracting speculation that he might help Pompadour become Edinburgh's sixth Michelin-starred restaurant - or even snatch the star from Number One.
Not every chef aspires to star catching, however. Some, like Brian Maule of Le Chardon d'Or in Glasgow, say they fear they'd lose their loyal and painstakingly built customer base were they suddenly (even if deservedly) to gain a star after years of slog - though he's unlikely to send it back if it's offered.
The stress of striving daily to maintain the same standard of food and ambience which gained the gong in the first place can be overwhelming. But there is no doubt that adding a star to the top of your menu can be hugely rewarding - in terms of increased kudos and financial return.
Equally, losing your star abruptly - as happened at the Plumed Horse in Leith and Champany Inn at Linlithgow in 2011 - can be just as devastating, especially since there is rarely any reason given. When the Summer Isles Hotel in Achiltibuie lost its star after 25 years in 2010, head chef Chris Frith-Bernard lost the will to cook and left, and I understand he's stopped cheffing altogether. By contrast, Braidwoods in Dalry, North Ayrshire, has quietly kept its star under chef-patrons Keith and Nicola Braidwood since 2000.
You may notice I've only mentioned Glasgow en passant, as it were. I'm just not going there again. Unless, of course, Michelin really wants to surprise us.
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