THE latest confrontation between members of the Orange Order and the Royal Ulster Constabulary may be more than a re-run of last year's similar incident. This could be far worse, for it looks as if it will only be one of many as the marching season gets into its stride and loyalists show how close their tempers have come to snapping. Their marches have proceeded without interruption for nearly 200 years, and they wonder why, when they are peaceable, they should be re-routed now. Loyalist opinion has come to a sticking point: it assumes that every concession is made to the nationalist minority and is at loyalist expense. Moreover, the concessions are made in response to murder by gun and bomb.

The reality is not quite of that order, but to the extent that it is what loyalists believe, Ulster could be in for another long hot summer. The present talks are certainly threatened, as is the whole peace process which has possibly already come to an end as a result of the IRA's return to mainland violence. It must seem strange, from a mainland perspective, that this surely predictable issue was not anticipated and addressed by the main bodies involved at a much earlier date. It is true that Orange marchers have been using the disputed route for a long time but the re-routing involves nothing of significance except the acceptance that the old route inflicts offence on some who now inhabit it.

It requires no great concession to avoid trouble by deferring to the feelings of one's neighbours. Much in Ulster has changed in 200 years and that is bound to include the geographical distribution of the two communities. If loyalist minds were not already inflamed by doubts about their future this particular sort of incident would simply not arise. It is a signal of a lack of confidence in the longer term intentions of the British Government as well as in its immediate policies.

These doubts are widely spread in the minds of a majority of Ulster Unionists. Mr Major may in fact have lost them; and Mr Blair may be quite incapable of appealing to them when his mini-manifesto commits him to encouraging ``the unity of the Irish peoples''. That Mr Trimble as well as Mr Paisley has felt it necessary to be at the scene of the latest confrontation is itself important. Mr Trimble in particular must feel that he could lose his following to his main rival unless he is on the spot himself and seen to be so.

The suspicion that what is happening could be as much a sign of despair as of defiance should make both London and Dublin handle his matter gingerly. No-one will be advantaged if Ulster explodes. One fact which is indisputable should never be ignored - peaceful change in Ulster depends on carrying loyalist opinion with it. Both governments involved in the future of the province know this well enough, but are failing to communicate their knowledge to the majority of the population.