THE latest confrontation between members of the Orange Order and the Royal Ulster Constabulary may be more than a re-run of last year's similar incident. This could be far worse, for it looks as if it will only be one of many as the marching season gets into its stride and loyalists show how close their tempers have come to snapping. Their marches have proceeded without interruption for nearly 200 years, and they wonder why, when they are peaceable, they should be re-routed now. Loyalist opinion has come to a sticking point: it assumes that every concession is made to the nationalist minority and is at loyalist expense. Moreover, the concessions are made in response to murder by gun and bomb.
The reality is not quite of that order, but to the extent that it is what loyalists believe, Ulster could be in for another long hot summer. The present talks are certainly threatened, as is the whole peace process which has possibly already come to an end as a result of the IRA's return to mainland violence. It must seem strange, from a mainland perspective, that this surely predictable issue was not anticipated and addressed by the main bodies involved at a much earlier date. It is true that Orange marchers have been using the disputed route for a long time but the re-routing involves nothing of significance except the acceptance that the old route inflicts offence on some who now inhabit it.
It requires no great concession to avoid trouble by deferring to the feelings of one's neighbours. Much in Ulster has changed in 200 years and that is bound to include the geographical distribution of the two communities. If loyalist minds were not already inflamed by doubts about their future this particular sort of incident would simply not arise. It is a signal of a lack of confidence in the longer term intentions of the British Government as well as in its immediate policies.
These doubts are widely spread in the minds of a majority of Ulster Unionists. Mr Major may in fact have lost them; and Mr Blair may be quite incapable of appealing to them when his mini-manifesto commits him to encouraging ``the unity of the Irish peoples''. That Mr Trimble as well as Mr Paisley has felt it necessary to be at the scene of the latest confrontation is itself important. Mr Trimble in particular must feel that he could lose his following to his main rival unless he is on the spot himself and seen to be so.
The suspicion that what is happening could be as much a sign of despair as of defiance should make both London and Dublin handle his matter gingerly. No-one will be advantaged if Ulster explodes. One fact which is indisputable should never be ignored - peaceful change in Ulster depends on carrying loyalist opinion with it. Both governments involved in the future of the province know this well enough, but are failing to communicate their knowledge to the majority of the population.
Why are you making commenting on The Herald only available to subscribers?
It should have been a safe space for informed debate, somewhere for readers to discuss issues around the biggest stories of the day, but all too often the below the line comments on most websites have become bogged down by off-topic discussions and abuse.
heraldscotland.com is tackling this problem by allowing only subscribers to comment.
We are doing this to improve the experience for our loyal readers and we believe it will reduce the ability of trolls and troublemakers, who occasionally find their way onto our site, to abuse our journalists and readers. We also hope it will help the comments section fulfil its promise as a part of Scotland's conversation with itself.
We are lucky at The Herald. We are read by an informed, educated readership who can add their knowledge and insights to our stories.
That is invaluable.
We are making the subscriber-only change to support our valued readers, who tell us they don't want the site cluttered up with irrelevant comments, untruths and abuse.
In the past, the journalist’s job was to collect and distribute information to the audience. Technology means that readers can shape a discussion. We look forward to hearing from you on heraldscotland.com
Comments & Moderation
Readers’ comments: You are personally liable for the content of any comments you upload to this website, so please act responsibly. We do not pre-moderate or monitor readers’ comments appearing on our websites, but we do post-moderate in response to complaints we receive or otherwise when a potential problem comes to our attention. You can make a complaint by using the ‘report this post’ link . We may then apply our discretion under the user terms to amend or delete comments.
Post moderation is undertaken full-time 9am-6pm on weekdays, and on a part-time basis outwith those hours.
Read the rules hereComments are closed on this article