ISRAEL'S top brass are becoming increasingly worried that they might not be able to fight and win a future full-scale conventional war in the Middle East because most of their troops are engaged permanently on anti-terrorist duties and have little time for combat training.
The other major worry is the proliferation of ballistic missiles and the quest for chemical, biological and, possibly, nuclear warheads among hostile ``second ring'' Arab nations such as Iran and Libya.
Arab anger and suspicion over the election victory of right-winger Benyamin Netanyahu has forced the country's military planners to take stock of strategic options and try to predict the likely threats.
Syria, the only Arab nation to earn grudging Israeli respect in the Six-Day and Yom Kippur wars, is still intent on recovering the Golan Heights. Israel is adamant that it cannot give up positions which would leave its northern settlements exposed to potential bombardment and provide Syria with a ready-made invasion route.
Syria's 400,000-strong forces have re-equipped and modernised since their defeat in 1973. Now they train constantly for the next war. With 4500 tanks, 4000 armoured personnel carriers, 1500 artillery guns, and 650 combat aircraft, they would make formidable opponents.
David Ivry, director-general of Israel's Defence Ministry, says: ``Syria is still, without a doubt, the main potential enemy as long as no peace agreement has been signed.''
Deputy Chief of the Defence Staff, Major General Matan Vilnai, adds: ``We have to modernise our tanks, aircraft and navy. Our concern is that, while the Syrians are training for just such a conflict, our men and women are occupied with anti-terrorist duties and may not be 100% ready to perform their primary role in wartime.''
In an attempt to establish some stability, Israel has made peace with Egypt and Jordan. Israeli instructors are training Jordanian pilots.
But Israeli overtures to formerly hostile states has a down side. With each new rapport, Syria, Iran, and Iraq feel more isolated and besieged, surrounded by enemies on all sides and paranoid about betrayal by their Islamic ``brothers''.
Beset by its own economic problems Israel is being forced to invest heavily in over-the-horizon weaponry to meet the upcoming threats.
It has three squadrons of Jericho ballistic missiles, each with a range of about 1000 miles, at Sedot Mikha near Tel Aviv. Many of the 50 to 60 missiles are believed to be capable of carrying nuclear warheads.
Although Israel has never admitted their possession, it is widely accepted that anything up to 120 nuclear weapons could be deployed and used at short notice.
Israeli air force jets are understood to have loaded nuclear bombs during the 1991 Gulf War. If Iraq had employed chemical or biological warheads in their Scud attacks on Tel Aviv or Jerusalem, they would have been dropped on Baghdad and other key targets.
Strategic planners in Tel Aviv are currently looking far beyond their own borders at the growing menace of programmes designed to give their bitterest opponents weapons of mass destruction.
Libya has a chemical weapons plant at Tarhunah, Iran a secret facility for producing weapons-grade plutonium at Neka on the Caspian Sea, and tunnels along the Gulf coast to house Scud missile launchers.
Despite UN inspection teams and satellite reconnaissance, Iraq may still have 40 Scuds and more than 200 chemical or biological warheads.
The Israelis are investing $2bn to acquire 25 US-made McDonnell Douglas F15I Strike Eagle bombers capable of reaching most potential targets in the region and hitting them with pinpoint precision.
Meanwhile, the most pressing security crisis on the agenda continues to be human suicide bombers. More than 60 Israelis have died in kamikaze bus blasts this year.
Huge numbers of Israeli troops are deployed in counter-terrorist sweeps, or in patrolling the Lebanese border zone. In doing so, they are vulnerable to ambush, mines and remote-controlled bombs.
Netanyahu assumed the premiership on a wave of impotent, national knee-jerk reaction against terrorism. His best bet of ending or at least containing that terrorism, however, is not a renewed assault on the immediate perpetrators, but a steady continuation of rapprochement with the Palestinians and others and the gradual isolation of the men of violence.
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