Tories set to play election waiting game

the Labour lead in the opinion polls

THE last few weeks of any Parliamentary year are usually full of rumour, counter rumour and gossip. Surprisingly over the last couple of weeks there has been much of substance to talk about - Labour's U-turn over devolution, Tony Blair's mini-manifesto and the launch of a new election strategy from the Tories.

In addition there has been the usual rumours about cabinet reshuffles and the like, and of course whether or not John Major might be preparing to go to the country in a General Election sometime in the autumn. With the parties launching what is effectively the start of a long and protracted General Election campaign this last week, it is worth assessing the Tories' chances of being able to win an early election.

I argued at last November's budget that its content indicated very strongly that it was the Government's intent to ride out this term of office until the last possible moment in spring 1997. However, in the last few months the indications have begun to come together that the Tories' fortunes may be on the up for the first time since early after John Major's election victory in 1992.

A lot has been made recently about the evidence that the feel-good factor is returning among voters. Indeed, during the last few weeks England's run to the semi-finals of Euro96 and Tim Henman's run at Wimbledon seemed to grip at least those south of the border, with some degree of optimism that had been missing for some time.

However, despite GMTV's self selecting poll after England's defeat of Spain a couple of weeks ago that suggested that 66% of people felt better because of England's Euro96 run, it takes a lot more than a few sporting half successes to win an election. In fact if we carefully examine the effects of England's World Cup win in 1966 the myths about sporting success and politics can be truly blown out of the water.

The General Election in 1966 was of course at the end of March, before the World Cup. But even more of significance is the fact that in the three months after England's win Labour's lead over the Conservatives in fact dropped from 15% in the second quarter of 1966 to only 3% in the third quarter as measured by Gallup. So no evidence for a feel-good factor there.

However, in 1996, the economic indicators which analysts use to make up the so-called feel-good factor are going in the right direction for the Government. Inflation is still low, unemployment is falling, interest rates remain low, consumer spending is up and house prices seem to be experiencing a modest rise.

In such circumstances it could be expected that a Government's poll rating would be on an upward trend. But since the ERM crisis of 1992, the Conservatives have struggled to gain any upturn in support from the brightening economic circumstances.

Yet in the last two months the adjusted poll rating for the Conservatives that take account of some of the difficulties in measuring the Tories' share of the vote does seem to be rising.

This was reflected in Scotland last week when both Mori for the Scotland on Sunday and System Three for The Herald showed the Tories on 15% in Scotland. The System Three figure was three percentage points up from the previous month and the highest Tory Scottish poll rating for 18 months.

However, in Britain as a whole, for the Tories to have any chance to win an election if it were fought in the autumn would require to turn round an average Labour lead of around 18-20% as things now stand. This requires a swing to the Conservatives of at least 9-10% in the next three months.

This is a tall order. In the last 15 years, we have only seen such a swing in such a short period of time twice. The first was in 1982 when from February to June the Tories managed to pull back a Labour lead with a swing of around 11%. This of course was against the background of the Falklands War and subsequent victory for the British Task Force.

The second occasion was from November 1990 through to early 1991, when the Tories ditched Mrs Thatcher and, of course, British troops were fighting in the Allied Coalition in the Gulf War. Here the swing achieved was very similar at just over 10%.

Given that both of these occasions were linked to fairly major political ruptures such as wars or the replacement of a prime minister, this summer looks un-likely to produce such a political earthquake that might do the job. At best the continuing upturn in economic fortunes may continue to boost Tory support but by only 2-3% over the summer, and not nearly enough to prompt an early election.

It is an often quoted belief among some analysts that opposition parties don't win elections, governments lose them. As the parties gear up for the election, many analysts, including myself are increasingly finding it difficult to see a way back for the Conservatives even if the election is put off until spring 1997. In fact, rather the Government having to be careful about losing the election, it is now Tony Blair that has everything to lose.

The recent devolution problems have shown splits in the party, and concerns continue to be expressed about Blair's style of leadership. While strong leadership goes down well with many voters, party splits do not. Blair must be careful here. Already polling indications show a rise in number of voters who see the Labour Pary is split. The Conservatives will be hoping their final chance may not be of their own making.

All the indications then, still point to a spring 1997 election unless the political earthquake comes from Labour throwing away its lead.As the Tories begin to close, they will be hoping that April or May of next year is enough time to catch up.

n Malcolm Dickson is Lecturer in Politics, University of Strathclyde.