IRAQ provided a confused response yesterday to the demand it removes
anti-aircraft batteries from the southern no-fly zone immediately.
Officials in Baghdad issued bellicose statements, Saddam Hussein
remained silent, and the Iraqi UN ambassador met diplomats from America,
Britain, France, and Russia.
Mr Nizar Hamdoon handed over a four-page reply to their 48-hour
ultimatum, asked for more meetings to discuss the situation, and invited
a delegation from Congress to visit Baghdad to improve relations.
However, he also reaffirmed Iraq's right to move its military equipment
wherever it wanted. Analysts saw the moves as playing for time.
American intelligence sources reported the batteries, or at least some
of them, have been moved in the past two days, but were unable to say
whether it was a tactical shift or if they have been pulled back north
of the 32nd parallel. Poor weather over Iraq prevented clear observation
by reconnaissance planes and satellites.
President Bush reaffirmed his insistence that the surface-to-air
missile systems must go, but took care not to specify what he might do
if the ultimatum is ignored. The deadline is 10.30pm today, midnight in
Baghdad.
Meanwhile in London, the Foreign Office summoned Mr Zuhair Ibrahim,
head of the Iraqi interests section at the Jordanian Embassy to drum
home the ultimatum.
The idea is to keep Saddam Hussein guessing, in the hope that the
batteries will be quietly removed. The Americans and their British,
French and Russian allies would probably accept an Iraqi promise to move
the batteries later, in a week or so.
If no promise is given, there can be little doubt Mr Bush will order
American forces in the region to eliminate the four batteries, and
perhaps also to destroy the air base north of the no-fly zone from which
Iraq has been flying patrols challenging American planes.
Mr Bush has apparently decided to do nothing about Bosnia, leaving the
problem to Mr Clinton. He perhaps plans to depart in a last-minute blaze
of glory in Iraq.
If Saddam gives him the excuse, the operation will probably take place
this weekend. The air war against Baghdad began right on time, midnight
on January 16, 1991, just as the last UN ultimatum expired. Mr Bush will
probably be equally punctual this time.
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