THEY say you shouldn't bet against the bookmakers, but it might pay to get your money on one of the outsiders now that they have installed Murdo Fraser as odds-on favourite.
This isn’t because he didn’t have an impressive campaign launch yesterday. He did. Or because he didn’t cope well with the furious attack on his plans by fundraiser Sir Jack Harvie. He did. Or because his vision of a Year Zero with a new Scottish right-of-centre party making a fresh start isn’t a good one. It is.
But odds of 4/5 appear to have been drafted by someone thinking in terms of general Scottish opinion among the population as a whole. Mr Fraser doesn’t have to persuade four million electors. That would come later if he got his way.
For now, he has the much tougher nut to crack of fewer than 9000 Tory Party members, the bulk of them, by definition, deeply conservative people wedded to the status quo.
Had he just stood as Annabel Goldie’s loyal deputy favouring the full Calman package, he would have been a shoo-in. It is to his credit that he has not taken the path of least resistance but embarked on a bold course, even if it risks frightening the horses.
He has damaged his chances of winning, but made the prize all the bigger should he achieve it: a party that has agreed to be remoulded according to his vision.
The big loser yesterday was Jackson Carlaw. When Sir Jack, after decades of fund-raising for the Scottish Conservative and Unionist Party, threw a hissy fit he chose to hand the benefit not to the veteran but to young rival Ruth Davidson.
Elected to Holyrood only in May, she has just one declared supporter among the MSPs in John Lamont, and one to come in John Scott. Her relative inexperience may count against her among some in the grassroots. She must overcome any prejudice against her lifestyle, living as she does with a female partner.
But above all she must come up with a big idea of her own, or a goodly number of smaller ones when she launches her campaign on Thursday. She has the tacit support of many in Tory Central Offices in Edinburgh and London, but some feel that could easily make her a prisoner of these interests if she wins.
I can recall 14 years ago writing an exclusive for this news-paper about a big new idea for the future of the Scots Tories from Brian Meek, Herald columnist and a leading light among Tory councillors.
It was for a new party with a new name, a sister party of the UK Conservatives making its own policies for north of the Border, based on the German federal model. It got nowhere, and the party here has been in steady decline ever since.
The Candidates
Murdo Fraser
Age: 45
Became an MSP for Mid-Scotland and Fife in 2001 and was successfully re-elected in each of the following three elections.
He is regarded with some suspicion by Unionists because of his support for enhanced devolution, including greater tax and spending powers for the Scottish Parliament, but others believe he is the candidate most alert to how the party can challenge Alex Salmond in the independence referendum.
A former chairman of the Scottish Young Conservatives, he became deputy leader in 2005 in Scotland and is currently its health spokesman.
Mr Fraser was born in Inverness and educated at Inverness Royal Academy. He studied law at Aberdeen University and before becoming an MSP worked as a solicitor in Aberdeen and Edinburgh.
He is married with two children, lives in Perthshire, and is a keen hillwalker who has bagged more than half of Scotland’s 284 Munros. He has also climbed Kilimanjaro.
A keen Rangers fan he contributed to a book called It’s Rangers for Me, while his political publications include pamphlets Full Fiscal Freedom and Scotland and the Euro. He has also edited The Blue Book in which Tory MSPs and activists outlined their ideas to revitalise the party.
His slogan is: "A new party for Scotland."
Jackson Carlaw
Age: 52
Made his ambitions clear when he published a paper on how he believes the Scottish Parliament can be improved, including longer sittings for MSPs.
He has been an MSP since 2007 after winning a list seat for the West of Scotland.
Confidence in him may have been damaged by his failure to win the Eastwood constituency despite boundary changes giving him a notional 3500 majority going into this year’s Holyrood election.
He is currently the party’s spokesman on transport, infrastructure and climate change.
Married, with two sons, he worked for 25 years as a car salesman.
After the 1992 General Election he was appointed vice-chairman and then deputy chairman of the Scottish party, a post he held until 1998.
His slogan is: "A proud Scotland in a Great Britain."
Ruth Davidson
Age: 32
A former BBC journalist who was elected a Glasgow list MSP just four months ago and is widely believed to have the support of David Cameron and retiring leader Annabel Goldie, for whom she worked as an aide in the Holyrood election campaign.
Ms Davidson, the party’s culture spokeswoman, accompanied the Prime Minister when he visited Glasgow during the Scottish elections.
She is openly gay and lives in Edinburgh with her partner of three years, an analyst for RBS.
There were claims of a "stitch-up" by some members when she replaced the previous candidate on the Glasgow regional list.
She has worked as a Sunday school teacher.
Her campaign will be officially launched on Thursday but her slogan is believed to be: "Winning for Scotland."
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