It's payback for voters in troubled eurozone

While France's second round presidential decider will be the biggest election in Europe this year, the parliamentary election on the same day in Greece carries enormous risks for the eurozone.

In general the news from Europe has been far from good of late. Only a few days ago figures released by the European Union's own statistics agency, Eurostat, showed unemployment in the eurozone rose to a new high last month.

While statistics almost always hide the true human cost of joblessness, the latest numbers nevertheless bring home the harsh economic reality the eurozone faces. Just try these facts for size.

In the 17 countries that belong to the eurozone, unemployment rose to 10.9%, an eleventh consecutive monthly increase that effectively translates as more than 17 million jobless citizens.

Among these economically disenfranchised a lost generation is taking shape, with youth unemployment running at almost 23% in the EU.

Hardly surprising then that in the national elections due to be held in France and Greece on Sunday the good people of those nations might be expected to put the political boot into incumbent governments many perceive as having presided over the dramatic decline in their living standards and public services.

In France, Nicolas Sarkozy, despite having got the better of his socialist presidential rival Francois Hollande in a televised debate on Wednesday night, does look likely to bite the political dust.

The French, it seems, might just have had enough of a leader often described as a "bling-bling" president and friend of the rich.

How interesting it was to read the results of a recent survey by the French polling agency CSA which attempted to measure the current political mood in the country.

Some 1000 voters were presented with 19 keywords picked from the 2007 and 2012 presidential campaign slogans and asked which best represented the state of French society and which best described their personal state of mind.

The two most-used words to describe society were "profit" (53%) and "capitalist" (43%), while the two respondents most used to describe themselves were "change" (28%) and "solidarity" (25%).

One French political commentator summed up such findings as pointing to the existence of a strong egalitarian critique of the economy. Yes, French people know there will have to be belt-tightening to repair public finances, he pointed out, but now they want the pain to be distributed fairly.

This shift in mood is of course precisely what Francois Hollande and his campaign have been able to exploit, repeating constantly their election mantra of the need for greater social justice. Should it give Mr Hollande victory, what it might in turn give Europe is the leader of an emerging bloc offering the first concerted challenge to the austerity measures that thus far have been Germany's dominant response to the euro crisis.

Indeed, just around the time the French ballot opens this weekend, Germany itself will see a key regional election in the northern state of Schleswig-Holstein that could also dent Chancellor Angela Merkel's power base despite her popularity and comparatively high standing.

Crucial bellwether for the eurozone as the outcome of the French presidential election might prove to be, it is the parliamentary election in Greece that will offer the first popular verdict on that country's own financial collapse.

In Athens, the latest election betting points to a ballot that will see the two main parties – centre-right New Democracy and PASOK's socialists – together garnering around 38% of the ballot, barely enough for a parliamentary majority under Greece's electoral system. In other words, no clear majority winner, suggesting a broad coalition with minor parties firmly opposed to the EU's austerity measures.

Such an outcome would place tremendous pressure on the new government to renegotiate parts of the ambitious second bailout deal struck in February that aims to clear the way for Greece to return to financial markets by 2015.

Among the voices of doom are some economists who take the view Sunday's election could push Greece back to the edge of the abyss where it stood in November last year amidst widespread talk of an exit from the eurozone

However, for the moment at least, eurozone leaders appear determined Greece should remain in the currency zone and recent polls show around 80% of Greeks remain committed to the euro.

Given these factors perhaps the most likely outcome will be a compromise between Greece and its official creditors.

On Sunday passions will no doubt be running high as Greeks vote. But in the country's' corridors of power and on the streets of Athens they will also no doubt be casting an anxious eye in the direction of Paris. For should Mr Hollande win, Greece might find an ally in a French leader many believe will lead the charge for a eurozone that puts greater emphasis on stimulating growth while being less fixated with debt reduction.

That being the case, Greece might just qualify as an early candidate for a loosening of its fiscal targets and punishing austerity measures, allowing the country to buy itself badly needed time.

Elsewhere in Europe, too, voters will be testing the resolve of incumbent governments, with local elections in Italy set to gauge the climate facing caretaker prime minister Mario Monti as he struggles to reform his own country's finances. Then there is EU outsider Serbia whose own presidential, parliamentary and local elections will reflect its own hopes of negotiating entry to the European fold.

Significant as these are it remains the ballots in France and Greece that will grab the headlines and have the capacity to shape Europe's immediate political landscape. By Monday morning the eurozone crisis could be moving in a new direction. It would be a welcome shift for some but a dangerous diversion in the eyes of others.