One in three young men in China is likely to die from the effects of smoking tobacco, research has found, although the number could fall if they quit smoking.
The study, by researchers from Oxford University, the Chinese Academy of Medical Sciences and the Chinese Centre for Disease Control, show two-thirds of young men in China take up smoking, mostly before the age of 20, and half of those will eventually be killed by tobacco unless they stop permanently.
The research, published in medical journal The Lancet, involved two studies 15 years apart and included hundreds of thousands of people.
The report said the number of tobacco-related deaths, mostly among men, reached a million by 2010 and will hit two million by 2030 if current trends continue.
But researchers say the trend could be stemmed if smokers quit.
"The key to avoid this huge wave of deaths is cessation, and if you are a young man, don't start," said co-author Richard Peto, from the University of Oxford.
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