THE Tories would win almost three times as many Scottish seats as Labour if there was a general election tomorrow, despite getting fewer votes, according to a new analysis.
The Electoral Calculus website predicted Ruth Davidson’s party would get 11 seats on 24 per cent of the vote, while Richard Leonard would get just four with 27 per cent.
The so-called ‘wrong winner’ forecast was based on crunching polls over the last two months involving more than 3000 people.
The Electoral Reform Society, which campaigns for a more proportional voting system, said such an outcome would be “absurd” and underlined the need for change.
In a less extreme example earlier this month, Electoral Calculus used polls covering 10,000 people to forecast Labour would come 0.2 per cent ahead in vote share across the UK in a snap election, but win 18 fewer seats than the Tories.
Willie Sullivan, Director of Electoral Reform Society Scotland, said: “This analysis shows that Westminster’s democratic deficit continues to get worse.
“This situation would be absurd- but not unprecedented. Two elections in the second half of the last century produced ‘wrong winner’ results. Now it looks like it could happen in Scotland. That’s not democracy, and does all of Scotland a disservice.”
The law on UK-wide elections is reserved to Westminster, but MSPs have control over the voting system for councils and Holyrood.
Mr Sullivan added: “London’s broken electoral system is holding back the will of voters. It is simply unacceptable that in the 21st century, we still face the prospect of the largest party winning fewer votes than the other side.”
Nancy Platts of the trade union reform group Politics for the Many added: “For Labour to potentially secure more than a quarter of the vote in Scotland but get just 7 per cent of seats is a sign of just how rigged Westminster’s voting system really is.
“The system looks increasingly rigged against working people’s voices, with the Tories unfairly benefitting from the vote-wasting machine that is ‘First Past the Post’.
“This analysis showing just how unfit for purpose the one-person-takes-all electoral system has become – serving the old boys’ network while workers’ interests are trampled on.”
A Scottish Labour spokesperson said: “This research confirms that it is Labour - under the leadership of Richard Leonard and Jeremy Corbyn - who are now the clear alternative to Tory austerity and SNP complacency.”
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