Analysis: John Swinney faces a tricky balancing act on teacher pay

On one level the dispute is a standard disagreement that Governments of all hues have been able to head off in the past: a union makes a pay claim far in excess of inflation; Ministers turn it down; and a modest rise is imposed.

But this standoff feels different. The unions argue that pay has fallen in value over the last decade and they want a 10% rise as a “restorative” measure. Swinney says 10% is unaffordable and has offered 3%. A proposed rejig of the main grading scale would also boost incomes.

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Teachers remain hostile to the offer. A rally in Glasgow, held to promote the pay claim, attracted tens of thousands of supporters. In a consultative ballot last week, around 98% of members in the two main unions - the EIS and the SSTA - rejected the 3% offer. A statutory strike vote is getting closer.

Swinney could ignore the unions and stick with the 3% offer, which was formally made by council representatives as part of the tripartite body set up to determine teacher pay. He could argue that no other public sector group is getting close to 10% and explain that such a rise would go to all teachers, regardless of income, including heads on £70,000 a year. He could stand his ground.

The political reality is he will put more money on the table. Swinney and his Cabinet colleagues are trying to build momentum for a second independence referendum and want to assemble a coalition of voters to tip them over the edge. The SNP Government’s ultimate objective would not be advanced by tens of thousands of teachers going on strike.

Swinney has already antagonised the unions by writing to teachers directly about the 3% claim. They saw it as an interference in their democratic affairs. It also backfired: after Swinney’s “communication”, teachers overwhelmingly rejected his pay offer. He will now want to dial down the row.

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What is he likely to do? With extra money coming to Scotland as a result of the UK Government budget, Swinney is in a position to argue for extra resources to bump up the offer. One suggestion is a deal over three years, rather than twelve months. Such an outcome would have the advantage of ensuring that teachers will not cause the Government any more headaches on pay until after the 2021 Holyrood election.

Police officers were recently given a multi-year deal and the First Minister last week hinted that a similar offer could be in the pipeline. “Pay awards need to be affordable, because if they are not affordable, they cannot be delivered,” she said. “I would love to give teachers and all public sector workers a 10 per cent pay rise, but that is simply not affordable in a single year.”

One reason for believing that strike action could be averted is the positive relationship between Swinney and EIS general secretary Larry Flanagan. Whereas EIS members have an increasingly unfavourable opinion of the Education Secretary, the union leader gets on well with Swinney. Asked about him last year, Flanagan said: “I think he is very competent.”

Back in the 1980s, Flanagan was a Militant Labour councillor in Glasgow whose political career was stymied by the party. He is believed to have a long memory of his treatment by Labour and has constructive relations with the SNP Government. He is also said to be more critical of council umbrella group COSLA than Swinney.

However, simply increasing the pay offer creates an additional problem for the Government. Councils employ a range of staff, not just teachers. The unions that represent these workers have made similar arguments about restorative pay claims and they too are limbering up for strike action. If EIS members get 10%, why should it be lower for those in the GMB, Unite and Unison?

COSLA’s position on “parity” - which roughly means staff groups receiving the same inflation pay increase - is noteworthy in this respect. Swinney could solve one problem by offering a 10% rise to teachers, but in the process trigger strike action by the other unions which would want the same for their members. Sturgeon herself raised this point on Thursday by saying that “all public sector workers have suffered because of years of pay restraint”.

Put another way, consider the range of staff that work in schools as part of the wider “teaching family”. If Swinney agreed to a 10% rise for teachers, heads on £70,000 would get a £7,000 boost. By contrast, the lower paid classroom assistants, cleaners and school technicians would get 3% in one year. It would be a tough sell for any Government that claims to believe in fairness.

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As Finance Secretary between 2007 and 2016, Swinney had a knack for producing creative solutions to a range of problems involving local government. He will need to be politically nimble if he is to solve the puzzle of the teacher pay dispute.

CLASSROOM PAY

Teachers

Point 0 (probationer) £22,866

Point 1 £27,438

Point 2 £29,064

Point 3 £30,714

Point 4 £32,499

Point 5 £34,557

Point 6 £36,480

Headteachers and depute heads can earn between £45,111 and £88,056

THE 1980s

ONE aspect of the current dispute that will be irritating the SNP Government is the repeated comparisons to the Thatcher era, when teachers walked out over pay.

Between 1984 and 1986, the EIS led a sustained period of industrial action in protest over pay. John Pollock, the union’s general secretary at the time, said that if the “grocer’s daughter was going to be made to listen”, the EIS had to be prepared for a long battle.

Action included 'work to rule' and a series of national one day strikes, which included targeting the constituencies of Tory government ministers. Malcolm Rifkind, the then Scottish Secretary, responded by announcing an “independent review” into teachers’ pay and terms and conditions, after which an agreement was accepted.

Over thirty years later, teachers are poised for another strike over pay and opposition politicians are calling for a root and branch review of remuneration

WHERE DO THE PARTIES STAND?

Pay rises for teachers are a matter for the Scottish Negotiating Committee for Teachers, not Holyrood, but opposition parties can apply pressure on the Government.

The Scottish Greens have been most vocal in backing the unions’ demands for a 10% rise and party co-convener Patrick Harvie has brought the issue to the chamber on more than one occasion. Raising the result on the consultative ballot last week, in which nearly 98% of teachers who took part rejected a 3% deal, he said:

“None of us needs a maths teacher to help us to understand those numbers. Can the First Minister recall a more overwhelming democratic mandate from any section of the Scottish workforce?”

Labour has also been supportive of the call for a restorative pay award. MSP Iain Gray, a former teacher, was highly critical of the Government’s decision to write to teachers directly over the 3% offer. He also compared the SNP Government to previous Tory administrations:

“The last time Scotland’s teachers were angry enough to go on strike Margaret Thatcher was still prime minister, I was a school teacher, the First Minister was a school pupil and some of the 98% of current teachers who have just rejected the pay offer were not even born.”

The Conservatives, who have backed pay restraint at a UK Government level, have not supported a 10% rise. The Liberal Democrats described the ballot result as an “extraordinary and brutal rebuke” to Swinney and have called for a “fair deal” and an independent expert review.