THE Scottish economy has now grown for more than two whole years, according to the latest official statistics, with GDP up 0.5 per cent in the first quarter of 2019.
The ninth quarter of consecutive growth coincided with a record 75.9% employment rate.
Growth in the quarter was driven by the manufacturing and construction sectors, which grew by 2.6% and 2% respectively, with GDP up 1.4% on the same quarter in 2018.
Brexit stockpiling may have been a factor, with two sub-sectors of manufacturing, Food & Drink and Pharmaceuticals, accounting for more than half of the 0.5% growth in the quarter.
UK GDP growth was also 0.5% in the Q1 2019, but higher, at 1.8%, over the year.
READ MORE: Scottish GDP growth matched UK over last 12 months
Economy Secretary Derek Mackay said the economy was “going from strength to strength”, and Brexit put its success at risk.
He said: “Growing the economy is a priority for the Scottish Government and we can see from these results it is working.
“We have provided more than £5bn of capital investment to build and modernise Scotland’s infrastructure, and provided the most generous non-domestic rates reliefs in the UK.
“The months and years ahead are crucial as we continue to invest in and grow the economy.
“The UK Government’s EU exit plans, in whatever form, will damage the Scottish economy.
“The Scottish Government has consistently been clear that the best option for the future wellbeing and prosperity of Scotland is to stay in the European Union. Otherwise we will see damage to our economy and the future prospects of the people of Scotland suffering.
“The growth and economic stability currently being experienced in Scotland is seriously threatened by the UK Government’s Brexit obsession.
“Indeed a no deal Brexit is set to take us from growth to recession.”
READ MORE: Scottish export figures spark fresh Indyref row
Scottish Secretary David Mundell said the SNP's talk of a second independence referendum threatened the economy.
He said: “Scotland’s economy is continuing to grow but I’m concerned that we have not matched the UK growth rate over the past 12 months.
“We need to close the gap. The UK Government is investing in Scotland’s economy, for example with our £1.3bn city and growth deal programme.
“I’d urge the Scottish Government to work with us and to use the powers at their disposal to best effect.
“It is increasingly clear their threats of a second independence referendum and decision to make Scotland the most highly taxed part of the UK are holding our economy back.”
READ MORE: Scottish economy stuck in reverse as Brexit spectre looms
The Scottish Fiscal Commission, the government’s budget watchdog, recently warned of a looming £1bn black hole caused by backdated reconciliations to income tax estimates.
These are forecast to be £229m in 2020-21, £608m in 2021/22, and £188m in 2022/23.
Economist John McLaren of Scottish Trends said: “Scottish growth in Quarter 1 of 2019 was above the recent average, helped by what are likely to be one-off boosts in spirits and pharmaceuticals production.
“However, the idea, as espoused by the Scottish Economy Secretary, that ‘Scotland’s economy continues to go from strength to strength’” is absurd, as the recent £1bn blow to the Scottish Budget through relatively slower Scottish growth demonstrates.”
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