IT had to happen. Donald Trump's Twitter diplomacy has now spread to Europe. The EU Council President, Donald Tusk, posted a fiery message on the social media platform yesterday blaming Boris Johnson for, er, the “stupid blame game”. Well, it takes two.
A rather longer “up yours” message had already emanated from the Number 10 bunker drafted, everyone assumes, by Boris Johnson's consiglieri Dominic Cummings. It certainly sounded like his style: blunt, confrontational, threatening. It was an anonymous briefing to the Spectator magazine which its author fully expected to be published. This was negotiation by leak.
There has been breathless, pearl-clutching outrage at this latest iteration of government Brexit policy. But the note, at least, had the merit of clarity. After Friday, if the EU refuses to negotiate, the British government will be working flat out for a General Election in which Johnson, to fight off Nigel Farage, will promise a No Deal Brexit
Number 10 believes that allowing Northern Ireland to remain in the single market was a major concession – the last. And it won't remain on the table for long. From next week, the Conservatives are to become the Brexit Party. No one can be in any doubt now about the Government's intentions.
READ MORE: Boris Johnson's Brexit deal on the brink
The German Chancellor, Angela Merkel, put the tin hat on it by telling the Prime Minister, in a tense phone call, that there can be no negotiations without Northern Ireland remaining in the customs union as well as the single market. But she must know this is impossible, because it would create a hard border in the Irish Sea. It would be rejected by the DUP and by most Conservative MPs, and would never get through parliament.
And even if Westminster voted to keep Northern Ireland in the EU – which is effectively what this means – the peace of the province would be threatened. Militants in the Protestant community would regard it as annexation by the Republic of Ireland. To paraphrase Gerry Adams: they haven't gone away either.
So, this is a dangerous deadlock precisely because the UK government isn't in a position to agree to what the EU demands even if it wanted to. The natural solution would be a change of government, and Brussels is probably banking on precisely that. But they should be careful what they wish for.
Boris Johnson has led all the recent opinion polls by a margin of up to 10%. The most likely outcome of an election is another hung parliament. I can't see Jeremy Corbyn winning any kind of majority, now that the Liberal Democrats are cannibalising the Labour Remain vote. Labour's bizarre policy of negotiating a new Brexit deal, and then opposing it in a referendum, will wreck their campaign.
Of course, a General Election is not the only way to change government, as this column has been insisting to the point of tedium. The opposition parties have a majority in parliament and can unite behind an alternative Prime Minister under the Fixed Term Parliament Act. Mr Johnson has a majority of minus 45 and is ripe for the taking. But the opposition parties can't decide on a leader of their rebellion, so they've decided to do nothing.
Yet, the Supreme Court lifted the prorogation of parliament precisely to allow MPs to hold this Government to account. The Commons was suspended again quietly yesterday without any serious challenge to Brexit. MPs have spent most of their extra time debating domestic abuse, which is all very good, but that was not what Lady Hale expected them to do. The Supreme Court ruling was to allow MPs to do their job of opposing the PM over Brexit in the crucial weeks before Britain leaves the EU on October 31. They haven't done that.
READ MORE: Boris Johnson ‘confident’ that UK is prepared to leave EU without a deal
Jeremy Corbyn has failed to trigger a Vote of No Confidence in Boris Johnson, despite accusing him of mounting a “coup” and systematically misleading parliament. The word from the leader's office is always: not yet, not yet. I suspect that Mr Corbyn could have tried harder to come to an acceptable arrangement with the non-Labour Remain MPs. But the Liberal Democrats and the Tory rebels seem determined to keep Boris Johnson in Number 10.
Amber Rudd, the Remain-supporting former Tory cabinet minister, told the Today programme yesterday that she would rather a No Deal Brexit than have the official Leader of the Opposition lead a caretaker government. Yet he is the only person who could, as she well knows. The idea of the Speaker, John Bercow, or Jo Swinson or even Kenneth Clarke leading the government of national unity would be unconstitutional as well as politically absurd. Why should Labour install a Tory as prime minister?
So, there will be no attempt to displace Boris Johnson at this crucial moment, even though his intentions are crystal clear: to crash Britain over the Brexit cliff edge. I'm beginning to suspect that Labour actually wants a No Deal, hoping that they can win an election on the back of the chaos, for time is about to run out for a confidence vote. They can't risk having parliament dissolved for 14 days over October 31.
Opposition MPs say not to worry because the Benn Act will keep Britain in the EU after October 31. But I doubt they really believe that. Boris Johnson remains Prime Minister in full charge of the civil service and the diplomatic corps. As the Cummings memorandum makes clear, his government will fulfil the “narrow” requirements of the Benn Act, which is to send a letter requesting an extension, but "the duty of sincere cooperation will be in the toilet”.
There are countless ways a determined Prime Minister can disrupt the Benn Act without Boris Johnson actually going to jail. Though if it comes to it, I suspect the Brextremists who have taken over the Government are fully prepared for that. They'll bend if not break the law. Mr Cummings has made clear that the Government is preparing for a Supreme Court showdown between the Prime Minister and the Spider Lady Hale.
This will be pure Brexit theatre: the “Remain elite” in the form of the Lords and Ladies of the Judiciary ordering the Government to keep Britain in the European Union. That will raise the curtain on the most divisive and acrimonious General Election in British history. And everyone will be to blame.
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