ONE of the first things one learns as an epidemiologist is that numerators are meaningless and often misleading without denominators, and neither is meaningful without context.

It sounds horrific that 25 per cent of Covid-19 deaths have been in care homes. The cry goes up that "something must be done – we are failing our older people". But the context is that in an average year nearly 20 per cent of deaths are in care homes. Of course we should not just shrug our shoulders and ignore avoidable shortening of life, but we should also recognise that care homes are clusters of highly vulnerable people. It is not surprising that an epidemic leads to many deaths in them.

Anyone can get Covid-19 and anyone can die of it. But across the population as a whole it is predominantly people who are already vulnerable who are most likely to die. Age per se may not be a risk factor but it is a pretty good proxy for vulnerability. In 2018, 81 per cent of Sottish deaths were age 65-plus; of Covid-19 deaths it is 88%.

We cannot keep lockdown in place forever or even until some future promise of a vaccine. One way of partially exiting might be to remove most restrictions for those under age 65 who are not otherwise vulnerable. That would let most businesses, schools and so on function more normally. The interface between those released and those more vulnerable would be complicated to manage, but probably no more complicated than any other partial exit.

We need to find ways to cope, physically and mentally, with a manageable number of severe cases and deaths from Covid-19 for the foreseeable future. The alternative is a devastated economy and shattered society.

To avoid readers thinking this letter is from a young person seeking to benefit themself, I'm 66 and my wife is 70.

Dave Gordon, Scone.

BACK in Nazi Germany individuals were valued for their usefulness to the state. If you were crippled, or old, or handicapped you were disposable. I would never have believed this philosophy was alive and well in 2020 UK, but it is becoming clear from the horrific statistics now emerging that a whole section of our community was excluded from the kind of intensive care which brought many, including Boris Johnson, back from the brink. South of the Border the policy was overt; here there doesn’t seem to be a smoking gun, but the figures speak for themselves ("Horrific toll of one in four virus deaths in care homes", The Herald, April 16) The callousness shown to the those needing support has been extended to those doing the supporting. A friend in England returned from sick leave to find that as a care assistant at her hospital she was denied any access to the limited supply of protective equipment. The story has been repeated here, again and again.

When this is all over there will be inquiries as to why the UK’s handling of the pandemic has been so woeful compared to what happened in Germany and some other countries. I hope there will be a special focus on the events in British care homes. It is too much to expect that anyone will be punished, as they were in Germany in 1945, but at least there can be naming and shaming and the bereaved relatives of care assistants and their charges will have some minor consolation.

Martin Axford, Bridge of Weir.

THE time will come when detailed consideration, which will include difficult political decisions, will have to be given as to how the mountain of debt incurred by the UK in the fight against the pandemic will be repaid. This involves serious amounts of money with the issue in a number of areas of what were effectively blank cheques.

There are many who were embittered by the measures taken by Coalition and Conservative governments in what became known earlier as the 10 Years of Austerity. Those years led to key services being cut, including the NHS. The roll-out of Universal Credit pushed more people into poverty, some into deep poverty. As a result, food banks sprung up all over the country. Grants to councils in high areas of deprivation were cut substantially and consequently spending in these areas was the subject of deep reductions. There are those who believe that we were not quite all in it together. We must hope that the pain of dealing with the financial consequences of the pandemic in the UK are shared appropriately and equitably.

There will be many who suffered during that much-discussed decade referred to who will share the views of Ernest Bevin in 1931, when leader of the transport workers, when at a time of financial crisis he was resisting a 10% cut in unemployment benefit, who then said: "City must not be saved at the expense of the working class."

Ian W Thomson, Lenzie.

WHEN we emerge from this hellish Coronavirus experience, the true financial cost to Scotland of coping must be revealed. I have no doubt the figure will confirm that had Scotland been independent, an SNP Government would have been totally financially incapable, in addition to the existing dire state of the economy, to manage without massive financial aid.

No matter what the final cost will be, supporters of separation will never admit the inability to cope financially, preferring Scots to exist in penury for decades just to prove a point and to achieve some sort of misguided “freedom”. I have no doubt that the cost will make even the most staunch nationalist agree that separation is as dead as Monty Python’s parrot.

Douglas Cowe, Newmachar.

SNP MP Douglas Chapman used the pandemic to draw an inappropriate comparison on Twitter between the number of deaths from Covid-19 in Scotland and England He tweeted: "Recorded deaths from #COVID in England are double the rate of Scotland" and pondering whether "NHS Scotland’s vastly superior A&E performance " or "Scotland’s 50 unique coronavirus assessment centres" are the cause. Leaving aside his questionable data interpretation, the tweet implicitly demeans the extraordinary efforts of NHS staff and care workers in England to save lives. While "them and us" politics are a hallmark of Scottish nationalism, surely the tragedy of death tolls shouldn't be crowed over by anyone – and certainly not a senior member of the SNP establishment?

Martin Redfern, Edinburgh EH10.

I NOTE with interest Ian Lakin's grim prediction that "the extra shared cost for the UK could be around £1 trillion which would increase the national debt by 50 per cent'' (Letters, April 13).

I am puzzled by his apparent conclusion that this admittedly huge – as yet only estimated – increase in the UK's national debt would impact only on poor wee Scotland, and not on the rest of the UK, despite the apparently higher incidence of the virus south of the Border to date.

Would it not be wiser by far to wait to see if such a development actually occurs before rushing to such an ideologically motivated assumption?

Ian O Bayne, Glasgow G12.

THE World Health Organisation last week, in response to rumours that British American Tobacco (BAT) was developing a Covid-19 vaccine, said that “partnership with the tobacco industry undermines governments’ credibility in protecting the population" as there is "a fundamental and irreconcilable conflict between the tobacco industry’s interests and public health policy interests.”

The tobacco industry “interests” have been accused of both knowingly driving addiction in developing countries and misrepresenting the function of filters. This week we learn that BAT faces charges of sanctions busting. Why do we tolerate this awful industry that causes people to take up scarce hospital beds which could be displacing people with conditions that are not self-inflicted?

Given Covid-19 targets the lungs, it’s not a big leap to suggest that smokers are likely to be disproportionately affected once they catch this damnable virus. If we are not allowed out to play why are we still allowed to buy tobacco? This paradox is the freedom too far. With Covid-19 a worldwide scourge, there has never been a better time for the world to ban all tobacco production and turn the fields and the resources over to food production.

John Dunlop, Ayr.

WITH the country in lockdown, much of life is on hold and the nation waits for signs of salvation from the coronavirus crisis. Rays of hope shine out in the manifest humanity responding to those most vulnerable to distress.

At the fore of this are Sikhs in Scotland, who launched a major new initiative, the Sikh Food Bank, to address the growing needs of the vulnerable and elderly. Scotland’s eight Gurdwaras, which normally serve more than 5,000 meals per week, were shuttered following Scottish Government advice to ban mass gatherings and to close all places of worship. This was especially difficult for Scottish Sikhs as these are normally a joyous few weeks where we would be celebrating Vaisakhi, the annual festival which marks the establishment of the Sikh Nation. Glasgow-dwellers will recall the distinctive procession of thousands of people dressed in vibrant colours singing through the streets of Glasgow, in the traditional Nagar Kirtan procession. This year’s 28th Nagar Kirtan was cancelled for the first time ever; such are the unique circumstances.

The Sikh spirit of selfless service, or Seva, is a foundational belief. It was this which inspired the Sikh Food Bank – a network of volunteers who buy, package and deliver emergency food parcels to vulnerable people to their doorsteps.

The Sikh Food Bank, driven by volunteers, utilises Gurdwara buildings to distribute emergency food parcels, provide hot meals and contact the vulnerable through a multi-lingual helpline. Taking inspiration from Guru Nanak, who established the Langar free kitchen, the Sikh Food Bank serves all communities, regardless of background or religion. The daily prayer of the Sikhs ends with a supplication; “we pray for the well-being of the whole of humanity” – I cannot think of more apt words for these times.”

Charandeep Singh, Executive Director, Sikhs in Scotland, Glasgow G53.

MY daughter is an A&E consultant putting her own and her family's lives on the line against the virus. Despite being a regular home delivery customer for years, Tesco now doesn't consider her a vulnerable customer and won't allocate her a home delivery slot. I have pleaded with the company by email but they are safe in their offices paying out more than £550 million in dividends and has now stopped responding. Please vote with your shopping basket and go elsewhere. Tesco just doesn't care.

Dave Biggar, Kilmacolm.

Shops across Scotland are closing. Newspaper sales are falling. But we’ve chosen to keep our coverage of the coronavirus crisis free because it’s so important for the people of Scotland to stay informed during this difficult time.

However, producing The Herald's unrivalled analysis, insight and opinion on a daily basis still costs money, and we need your support to sustain our trusted, quality journalism.

To help us get through this, we’re asking readers to take a digital subscription to The Herald. You can sign up now for just £2 for two months.

If you choose to sign up, we’ll offer a faster loading, advert-light experience – and deliver a digital version of the print product to your device every day. Click here to help The Herald

Thank you, and stay safe.