Coronavirus vaccine roll-out impact might not be seen for months

Prof Bald said there was real concern about the new B117 variant which is accounting for around 40% of cases in Scotland and 60% elsewhere in the UK and which causes a higher viral load, resulting in it being more easily transferable.

The First Minister issued a stark warning yesterday that “the next few weeks may be the most dangerous we’ve faced” since the start of the pandemic as a further 2,622 new cases were confirmed on Hogmanay.

Nicola Sturgeon warned that the new mutated variant of the virus, now thought to be becoming the “dominant” strain in Scotland, means case numbers are expected to remain high.

Earlier this week a London-based intensive care doctor warned that hospitals were experiencing a “super-surge” of admissions due to rising Covid cases combined with winter illness and other trauma cases.

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Prof Bauld said units in Scotland were not seeing the same “truly frightening” admissions but warned that this could change in the next week, particularly if there was an increase in Hogmanay social mixing.

She said: “Hospital ICU capacity (in Scotland) is still in a pretty good state and we have already committed to being able to double that if we have to.

“I haven’t seen any data from our trusts suggesting that there is a big crisis. But the main reason for that – and this could change over the next week – is that our rates are still significantly lower than they are elsewhere in the UK.

“If you look at increases per country over the last seven days and cases per 100,000, in Scotland you are sitting at around 160, in Wales they are well up over 400 and heading towards 500. In England about 440 and in Northern Ireland 370.

“These are big numbers. They have had big outbreaks. In Wales, after they had their two week fire break, they opened everything up really quickly and then gradually began to see a big surge.

“With England, those case numbers are dominated by the South East and London, plus some of the areas that have just gone into Tier 4 that they are starting to worry about. A lot of that is due to the new variant that is counting for over 60% of cases.

“We have been living under stricter conditions than many parts of the UK. We got our case numbers down to a lower level in the summer so we are probably still benefitting from that.

“I just don’t think the new variant has really taken hold yet. I think it’s up to 40% of our cases. I’m really concerned. You can see the figures over the past two days and I think we are heading in the same direction as what is happening elsewhere, where they have had these big rises."

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She added: “If we are not mixing, maybe we can get on top of it. What is absolutely clear is that the people who come into contact with it, it ends up being a much higher viral load and that’s why it’s more easily passed on.”

While she said there are no indications that the vaccines approved in the UK won’t protect against the B117 strain she said there is “some concern’ over the South African variant.

“In terms of the vaccine, I don’t think we are going to see much benefit in terms of hospital admissions until late February, early March time. And that’s because of the timing of protection, said Prof Bauld.

“We have done almost 1% of the UK population around 900,000 and 90,000 in Scotland and there will be more now so that’s encouraging. But we really need to speed up. The problem is the dosing.

“After 22 days, it’s between 60 to 70% (immunity) and they think that will last at least three months and then it would start to wane after that which is why it’s important for people to get the second dose around 12 weeks after the first one.”

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Intensive care doctors in London said there was some concern that the majority of the most serious cases were those in their late 50s, who will not be vaccinated until much later.  

“That is true,” said Prof Bauld. “But it’s possible that many of those who end up in ICU have got some kind of underlying health condition.

“That means if they do - if they have diabetes or are severely overweight - they will be in the first phase of the vaccination programme.”

A Scottish Government spokesman said: “The vaccine is a really important part of the solution for finding a way out of the pandemic, but it’s still vital that we follow public health measures, including social distancing, regular hand washing and complying with local restrictions to help try and keep the virus under control.”