Issue of the Day: vaccines and variants

Citing medical concerns about efficacy, South Africa has halted vaccinations using the Oxford AstraZeneca Covd-19 vaccine. The news comes amid ongoing problems with worldwide supply and concerns about new variants.

What’s the story in South Africa?

The country has a million doses of the Oxford AstraZeneca vaccine but a small study found that it offered “minimal protection” against mild and moderate cases of the so-called South African variant, which is prevalent there. With nearly 150 cases of that variant already identified in the UK, the news is worrying though it’s hoped the vaccine will still mitigate against severe infections, which in turn will reduce pressure on medical services. Studies pitting the South African variant against the Novavax vaccine, which should be cleared for use in the UK in the coming months, found it too had a reduced efficacy, from 96% to around 60%.

What do the experts say?

“In the medium term, what matters most is preventing more serious forms of Covid-19, and it is thought the AstraZeneca vaccine will do this,” said Dr Peter English, former chair of the public health medicine committee of the British Medical Association. “Within months we hope to see availability of new vaccines tailored to the South African variant.”

What about other variants?

The Kent variant identified in England before Christmas is now thought to be the dominant strain in many parts of the UK due to its increased transmissibility. It has now spread to at least 50 other countries. There are many more variants but the most significant besides these two is one identified in Brazil. As yet there is little evidence that the three most notable variants increase the severity of symptoms, though there is some evidence that the Kent variant increases the risk of death.

What’s the picture in Scotland?

There have been only a handful of cases of the South African variant identified and the spread of the Kent variant is less marked in Scotland than in other areas of the UK. As for vaccines, First Minister Nicola Sturgeon said at her briefing yesterday that Scotland should pass the milestone of one million vaccinations later this week, with nearly a third of 70 to 75-year-olds now having had their first jab. Against this background, the UK government has announced that it aims to have all over-50s vaccinated by May.

Is that Theresa May or James May?

It’s assumed the government means the month of May rather than the former Prime Minister or the car-loving broadcaster, though whether ‘by May’ means the beginning or the end of the month in question has been left vague. As we know to our cost, 31 days is a long time in a pandemic. In fact some would say it has been left deliberately vague: to maintain its present pace and reach the vaccination programme will need to double in scale when those requiring a second jab re-join the queue. As yet nobody is able (or willing) to say what effect that will have on the speed of the rollout.