AND so it rumbles on. This week has brought another skirmish in the war of Alex versus Nicola and there’s a distinct air of déjà vu about it.

The latest revelations, from Tory MP David Davis, aren’t terribly revelatory, which is becoming something of a theme.

What they do, however, is to remind voters once again of the rift at the top of the SNP, which supporters fear could damage not only the party but support for independence.

A new poll will have only increased those concerns. Opinium, for Sky News, has found that the SNP – previously on course for a Holyrood majority – would be ever so slightly short of one if the vote were held today, while support for independence is ahead now only by a whisker.

Put it together with other recent polls and you have a trend.

Will future historians look back and declare that this was the moment a second independence referendum was effectively lost? That the prospects for success were looking rosy, with more than 20 polls in a row putting Yes ahead, only to be irrevocably ruined by SNP family breakdown?

 

Most Scots still trust Nicola Sturgeon

Somehow I doubt it. There has been much focus on the significance of those polls and the timing of a second referendum, but in truth there is no such thing as the optimal moment for it. Why? Because campaigns change everything.

The SNP’s internal strife does make it harder for people to trust them; indeed, the Opinium poll shows that slightly more Scots feel Ms Sturgeon was dishonest facing the Holyrood inquiry than thought she was telling the truth.

But at the same time, her approval rating is +27, showing she is “still incredibly popular” – way more than Boris Johnson or Douglas Ross.

This tends to suggest that the Salmond affair is not decisive in people’s judgment about either Ms Sturgeon or her party, never mind about independence. Her handling of the pandemic apparently counts for rather more.

So unless Ms Sturgeon is found to have knowingly broken the ministerial code, or is disgraced by further evidence coming to light, then of much greater importance when a second referendum comes will be the strength of the campaign and the ability of the Yes side to offer a convincing prospectus.

Nevertheless, SNP nerves are getting a little frayed. This week, pro-UK group Scotland in Union rattled the SNP’s cage by publishing the results of a poll in which Scottish voters were asked if they would prefer to leave the UK or remain (answer: 57 per cent remain, 43 per cent leave). SNP deputy leader Keith Brown hit back that the question was “rigged”.

In the post-Trump era, it must be said, “rigged” is a word that should be given a wide berth. It carries connotations of petulance, of a dyspeptic president late at night, T-bone sitting uncomfortably in the digestive tract, quiff hanging over face, furiously bashing his iPhone screen.

But one can understand Mr Brown’s irritability: after all, it’s just six months since he was declaring independence was the “settled will” of the Scottish people.

Much store has been placed on the idea of “momentum” carrying the Yes campaign to victory. But this, in my view, has been overplayed. Even many months of majority support for independence would in no way guarantee victory.

History shows that only too clearly. The siren call of the “sure thing” has seen many a political career dashed to smithereens. In the months running up to the 2015 general election, in which David Cameron promised an EU referendum, the polls showed Remain consistently ahead and we all know what happened next.

Theresa May called an unnecessary general election in 2017 while 20 points ahead in the polls, convinced she could only win big, and promptly lost her majority.

An independence referendum will be closely fought whenever it is held because it’s about much more than personalities. If Yes activists want something to worry about, they should worry about that.

If there is a referendum in the near future, can they convince people they’d be better off with independence, in the wake of a colossal economic crisis? Will voters believe the SNP’s social democratic vision is achievable and affordable? And how will the government of an independent Scotland that’s rejoined the EU avoid cross-border trade problems with England of the sort we’re seeing post-Brexit between Britain and the EU?

The hard truth is that none of these issues are straightforward. Becoming independent is not a course of action with only glorious upsides. Frankly, worrying about marginal changes to Nicola Sturgeon’s popularity will seem like a luxury compared to trying to win debates on this stuff when the time comes.

If there is one worrying finding in the Opinium poll for the SNP, it’s this: that even if the SNP get a majority, more voters (48%) feel there shouldn’t be another vote in the next five years than think there should (46%).

Is that reticence down to mistrust of Ms Sturgeon? I doubt it; more likely it’s that voters prioritise the recovery, jobs and the future of the NHS over independence.

But given the SNP’s plan to pursue a referendum, through the courts if necessary, they need the public on side. It’s starting to look like voters have other ideas which could be a real headache for Ms Sturgeon.

 

Stushie won’t mean victory for the Tories

 

As for the fast-approaching Holyrood election, it’s remarkable how little impact the opposition have been making. The Conservatives, goaded for so long by the hated “Nats”, have been unable to contain their glee at Ms Sturgeon’s predicament and have missed no opportunity to point and jeer. But historically the sight of UK ministers sticking it to the SNP in a high-handed manner has gone down in Scotland like a Lannister in Winterfell. Liam Fox and Penny Mordaunt aren’t likely to get them cheering on the streets of Inverclyde. With a bad smell emanating from Westminster over the awarding of PPE contracts by ministers, meanwhile, charges of sleaze against SNP ministers is a tough one for the Tories to pull off.

The real story, then, is how little anything has changed. Support for the respective parties in Scotland has moved surprisingly little in five years; ditto support for independence.

So come a referendum – whenever that may be – there will be all to play for.

Our columns are a platform for writers to express their opinions. They do not necessarily represent the views of The Herald.