An online calculator has identified several Scottish local authorities at risk of being a 'coronavirus hotspot' ahead of the easing of lockdown rules.
Devised by Imperial College London, the website predicts which parts of the country have the greatest probability of seeing cases rise above 100 per 100,000, which it classes as a 'hotspot.'
West Lothian is deemed to be the most likely area in the country to become a hotspot between now and April 4 – during which time Scotland drops its ‘stay at home’ restriction – with a probability of 95% according to the tool.
Fife is next in line in terms of probability, sitting at around 50%.
Glasgow City and North Lanarkshire also have potential to become a virus hotspot, according to the tracker, sitting at 46% and 45% respectively.
Following that, Perth and Kinross (44%) , East Renfrewshire (41%) and Dundee City (36%) make up the areas deemed most at risk.
The website uses data on daily reported cases and weekly reported deaths and mathematics modelling to report a probability that a local authority will become a hotspot in the following week.
The predictions do assume no change in current interventions (lockdowns, school closures, and others) in a local authority beyond those already taken about a week before the end of observations.
Having previously reported on the hotspots over the Christmas period, we are also able to make a comparison as to how far areas have improved in the last three months.
For example, North Ayrshire has dropped from having a probability of around 92% back in late December, to just 22% now.
East Ayrshire has also seen a massive drop, according to the tool, going from a likelihood of 84% to just 4%.
In East Lothian, figures have dropped from a fearful 78% probability of a hotspot over the festive period, to around 1% now.
You can use our interactive map below to see how your area compares with late December:
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