By Mike Merritt
THE Highland Clearances remain one of the most emotive chapters in Scotland's history, during which tens of thousands men, women and children were forcibly evicted from their homes as swathes of the country were depopulated.
Now a new report has painted a bleak portrait for the future of the Outer Hebrides in the 21st century.
Conjuring up an image of a new kind of clearances scenario, the document projects that the Outer Hebrides will become the first part of the country with an average household occupancy of less than two people.
At the same time, the largest age group increase will be among the over 90s - estimated to rise by an incredible 41 per cent, mainly women.
The latest Western Isles Council Socio Economic Update by research officer Kathleen Shirkie carries stark warnings, with fewer young people and more elderly, as well as plummeting numbers of economically active people.
The largest age group increase will be among the over 90s - estimated to rise by an incredible 41 per cent, mainly women.
The trend will have major impacts on medical and social services, as well as even more potential school closures.
The most recent mid-year population estimates for the Outer Hebrides gives a population of 26,720 with just 189 births compared to 341 deaths in that year.
Over the last ten years - between 2009 and 2019 - in the Outer Hebrides there has been a decrease of 700 persons (-2.6%). Over the same period, Orkney saw an increase of 6.4%, Shetland an increase of 0.5%, while Scotland overall saw an increase of 4.4%.
Western Isles Council Leader Roddie MacKay said: "The population challenge is clear. We need more younger, working age people to move here or to stay here in order to support and grow our economy, and key drivers for this will include jobs, housing, connectivity and transport links."
The report says that currently there are over 5000 single adult households in the islands - about 40% of the total. That figure is expected to rise even more by 2028 due to there being an increase in single, elderly people.
However, a 15% drop is projected in the number of households with two or more adults and children from a current figure of just over 2000.
By 2027, the average number of occupants per household will fall below two for the first time. An 8% decrease is also expected in households with three or more adults.
Overall the data predicts a 2.3% decline in the number of islands households by 2028 and a further loss of 11% by 2043.
In contrast, throughout Scotland as a whole, the number of households is projected to increase by 5% by 2028.
"Over the period 2018 to 2043 the Outer Hebrides is projected to have the highest decrease in households at 11%," says the report. "Scotland’s population is ageing. One person households are the main household type and this is projected to continue with households with children declining.
"In 2028, 1 adult households are projected to remain the most common (41.8%) in the Outer Hebrides and 1 adult plus one or more children is projected to remain the least common (4.3%)."
"In addition, between 2018 and 2028 the 50-54 year age group will see the largest percentage decrease (-24.1%) and the 90 and over age group is projected to have the largest increase (+41%) in the Outer Hebrides.
"In 2028, the largest age group is projected to be the 75-79 age group, in comparison to the 50-54 age group in 2018, highlighting the ageing population."
Between 2011 and 2019 there were population declines in all but five of the data areas in the isles.
According to a previous Highlands and Islands Enterprise report population trends for young people in the isles "are quite bleak."
However Scottish islands are consistently among the happiest places to live in the UK, according to past data from the Office for National Statistics, and other surveys.
But they have been facing an exodus of their young.
Meanwhile, Scots could be offered up to £50,000 to stay or move to the islands under new proposed plans from the SNP.
In a bid to tackle the decline in the rural population in Scotland, Nicola Sturgeon's party will set up a bonds plans if it's re-elected in May.
The initiative will aim to help people buy homes, start businesses in rural communities and stay for the long-term.
The "Island Bond” will be available to 100 young people or families who are considering a move to or away from communities currently threatened by depopulation.
At the time of the 2011 census, there were 93 inhabited islands in Scotland. Some 103,700 people were found to live on these islands, an increase of more than 4000 from the previous census in 2001.
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