TONY Blair has said an SNP majority at the Holyrood election next week would not necessarily mean Scots want another independence referendum.
The former prime minister said he would "frankly doubt" that people wanted to go through the "disruption" of another campaign.
In an interview with ITV News, he also said the union would already be in "tatters" if Labour hadn't implemented devolution.
However, Mr Blair pointed to a failure to build "real cultural ties and emphasise the enormous things" that the different countries of the UK have in common.
His comments come ahead of the Holyrood election on May 6, in which the SNP is seeking to secure a majority.
First Minister Nicola Sturgeon has said she wants another referendum to be held in the "first half" of the next five-year parliamentary term, when Scotland is in the "recovery phase" following the coronavirus crisis.
The Tories have branded this "reckless".
Speaking to ITV News, Mr Blair said: "If the Labour Party hadn’t implemented its manifesto commitment to do devolution in 1997, the union would already be in tatters.
"Now, where I think we were wrong was in believing that devolution would end the argument for independence - it hasn’t ended it, but it's still a very substantial part of the bulwark against it.
"My best bet is that in the end Scotland will vote ultimately, and want ultimately, to remain inside the UK.
"But I agree it's proved to be a tougher fight than we anticipated.
"Although again, you've got to say in 2014, when we had the referendum and there was the majority for Scotland staying, that ended the issue until Brexit put it back on the agenda."
He added: "I do think one of the weaknesses in the way we approached devolution was not to build real cultural ties and emphasise the enormous things that Scotland, England, all the different countries in the United Kingdom have in common."
Mr Blair said: "I'm not sure that even if the SNP win a majority in the Scottish Parliament that it necessarily means that people want to go through the disruption of an independence campaign – I would frankly doubt that."
Asked how long Boris Johnson can resist a second referendum if there is a majority for independence, Mr Blair said it "becomes more difficult over time, if opinion looks as if it's fixed, but let's see if that's actually the case".
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