NICOLA Sturgeon sneered at Alex Salmond early in the campaign after he launched his new Alba party, calling him a “gambler” who “backs horses on a daily basis”.
But the former first minister is not the only one prone to a flutter.
Ms Sturgeon also took a massive gamble in putting so much emphasis on holding a second independence referendum, despite the ongoing pandemic and the long recovery ahead.
It proved an easy target for her opponents, who said the economy and jobs came first.
Ms Sturgeon’s argument was that independence was required to shape the recovery, but the pitch never made much sense, given independence would only arrive, on her own preferred timetable, in 2026, by when the recovery ought to be over.
The last time Ms Sturgeon gambled on prioritising Indyref2 was in 2017.
It was too soon for voters and she lost 21 MPs in that year’s snap general election. After she changed tack in the 2019 election, with a “Stop Brexit” message and Indyref2 in the background, she won most of those seats back.
The mixed results from yesterday, with localised tactical voting bucking the national trend, plus the swings and roundabouts of the Holyrood list system, mean it is too early to say if her renewed gamble has paid off in the form of an absolute SNP majority.
If she achieves it, it will give her the maximum mandate on which to seek Indyref2.
If she misses it, even though the SNP and Scottish Greens will have a combined pro-independence bloc, it makes it easier for Boris Johnson to quibble and delay.
Ms Sturgeon is fond of citing precedents from the 2014 vote as the basis for the next one, and the first referendum was triggered by an SNP majority, after all.
Regardless, the coming parliament is likely to be consumed by years of constitutional argument.
Scottish Labour leader Anas Sarwar had the best start of the campaign, with a fresh approach that made his predecessor Richard Leonard even more forgettable.
However, the central thrust of his argument was not so different from other recent Labour leaders at Holyrood – that the constitution is an “old argument” of little concern which has to be moved past.
But, as the results for the SNP and Tories showed, the constitution is categorically not an old argument, but very much alive, and very much to the fore in voters’ minds.
And while Mr Sarwar almost doubled Labour’s vote in Glasgow Southside, he only shaved a handful of votes off Nicola Sturgeon’s thumping majority in the seat.
The SNP attack line that he was a fence-sitter struck home, and his good start is unlikely to translate into a good finish.
Labour has already lost East Lothian despite the local SNP MP defecting to Alba, and failed to take its top target of Rutherglen, where the MP is the former SNP member Margaret Ferrier, now a pariah because of breaking Covid rules.
Douglas Ross, who took over the leadership of the Scottish Tories last August, fared less well than his party on most metrics.
After some wobbly debate turns, his party showed its traditional ruthlessness by sidelining him on its material, even giving him second billing in a party political broadcast.
Ruth Davidson filled the personality vacuum while Mr Ross stewed in her shadow.
However, the Tories’ early focus on tactical voting, especially on the list, appears to have paid off, with big gains in seats where they were the main Unionist challenger.
Despite boosting his majority in North East Fife, thanks to tactical votes from the Tories, Willie Rennie must be disappointed at the failure of the Scottish Liberal Democrats to pick up their target seat of Caithness, Sutherland and Ross.
If the party fails to make any list gains today, it will raise questions about Mr Rennie’s leadership after a decade stuck on five MSPs.
The Scottish Greens and Alba party also get their list results today.
The former expect gains, the latter would be grateful for one MSP. But even if Alba come up empty-handed, the party has undoubtedly had an impact.
For one thing, it has shone an unforgiving spotlight on the thinness of the SNP’s economic case for leaving the UK.
Mr Salmond has gone further than anyone else in the Yes camp in pointing out the numbers in the White Paper put before voters in 2014 are now out of date.
As is the SNP’s Growth Commission report of 2018, yet to be updated in light of the final Brexit deal or the pandemic.
Many of the SNP’s most energetic activists also campaigned for Alba, which could have cost the SNP votes on the ground.
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