Researchers have identified genetic patterns that could help to predict the likelihood of someone developing pancreatic cancer which could lead to earlier diagnosis and treatment.
The discovery by scientists in Southampton could pave the way to a screening programme which could be used for the first time to detect the disease at an earlier stage.
Around 950 people a year in Scotland are diagnosed with pancreatic cancer. It is the seventh most common form of cancer among women in Scotland, and the tenth most common form for males.
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Three in five people are diagnosed at a late stage when surgery may be no longer possible and treatments are less likely to work.
Five-year survival for pancreatic cancer is just 5.6 per cent compared to 85% for breast or prostate cancers.
Researchers from NIHR Southampton Biomedical Research Centre and the University of Southampton compared the genetic data of 1,042 people with pancreatic ductal adenocarcinoma cancer (PDAC) - the most common form of pancreatic cancer - with 10,420 participants without cancer.
PDAC has the lowest survival rate of any cancer and, with no effective early diagnosis tools, it is usually detected at an advanced stage when it has spread around the body.
It is also linked to new-onset diabetes and symptoms can include weight loss and changes to bowel habits, with vague symptoms often presenting difficulties in identifying the cancer early.
Using data from the UK Biobank database, the lead researchers Dr Zaed Hamady and Dr William Tapper looked for small variations in genes previously linked to the disease.
The findings are published in the journal, Gastroenterology.
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They combined this genetic data with information on a person's symptoms, lifestyle and medical history and used a computer model to establish what factors were most likely to increase the risk of developing the cancer.
The researchers said the findings could pave the way for a secondary screening programme for patients with new-onset diabetes who may be at greater risk of developing pancreatic cancer.
Dr Hamady, a consultant pancreatic surgeon, said: "This study could change the way we diagnose people with pancreatic ductal adenocarcinoma.
"It shows it is possible to develop a model which can predict who is most likely to develop the disease and, if used as a tool to aid diagnosis, this could greatly help to catch this cancer early at a time when treatment is most effective. This would help save lives."
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The researchers have received £35,000 from the Liver and Pancreatic Research & Development Fund, part of the independent Planets Cancer Charity, to progress the project and develop a dedicated risk score tool.
Dr Tapper, associate professor in genomic informatics at the University of Southampton and project lead, said: "Pancreatic cancer remains a stubbornly difficult cancer to treat and, as with many cancers, early detection is crucial to improving patient outcomes.
"Often detection comes too late and survival rates remain low compared to other forms of cancer.
"Further innovative technology to predict people at risk of pancreatic cancer is particularly important for early detection.
"The aim is that this research programme will identify a group of people who will benefit from a screening programme without major financial impact on the public health system."
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