Climate crisis poses risk to Scotland's World Heritage site

Edinburgh’s Old and New Towns, with their cobbled closes and grand townhouses, and the 142 AD Antonine Wall, stretching from the Firth of Forth to the Firth of Clyde, are recognised on a global stage, UNESCO World Heritage Sites alongside the pyramids of Giza, the Great Barrier Reef and the Palace of Versailles.

Now two new investigations have revealed how vulnerable both are to the onslaught of the changing climate, further heightening concerns for their futures.

The results of two extensive climate change risk assessments, which explored the sites separately and spanned the physical risks to structures and landscape as well as the social, cultural and economic impacts of climate change, have just been published.

The reports highlight the fragile nature of both sites, and warn they are unlikely to emerge unscathed from shifting temperatures, storm events and rainfall.

They follow a similar investigation in 2019 into the Heart of Neolithic Orkney World Heritage Site, which includes Skara Brae and the Ring of Brodgar.

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That survey was just the second time in the world the Climate Vulnerability Index had been used to gauge the impacts of the changing climate.

Developed in Australia and first trialled at the natural World Heritage site of Shark Bay in Western Australia, it aims to rapidly assess climate impacts on both a site’s Outstanding University Value (OUV) – the reference point which acts as a baseline for their listing as World Heritage Sites – and associated community factors spanning economy, tourism and social issues.

In the Orkney site’s case, its Outstanding Universal Value (OUV) was assessed as having the highest level of vulnerability to climate change.

Now the Antonine Wall has emerged as also having the same highest level of vulnerability, with rain, storm and temperature rises all likely to have an “extreme” impact on the structure.

When taking into account potential adaptive measures to mitigate issues created by the three key climate impacts, the report still found the risk of the historic structure is “high”.

The report also revealed that elements of the landscape and topography of the 45 miles Roman wall and its underground remains, particularly stretches that lie beneath urban areas and both key elements of the structure’s 2008 World Heritage listing, have deteriorated.

Both are shown as posing “significant concern”, indicating that the “property’s values are threatened and/or may be showing signs of deterioration”. It adds that “significant additional conservation measures are needed to maintain and/or restore values over the medium to long-term.”

Similar concerns are also raised in the analysis of Edinburgh’s Old and New Towns, the first time it had been used in an urban World Heritage property, where the investigation highlighted “significant concerns” for public and commercial monuments.

READ MORE: Explore 2000 years of history at the Antonine Wall

It also indicated a deterioration in the World Heritage Site’s ‘topography and iconic skyline’ within the first phase of its New Town, an area which includes Princes Street, George Street and Queen Street.

Edinburgh’s city centre has undergone radical changes since it was granted World Heritage status in 1995, including the controversial bronze coloured coil hotel building – likened by some to a ‘poo’ emoji’ – which makes up part of the new £1bn St James Quarter.

The CVI research concluded that while the Old and New Town’s Outstanding Universal Value has a ‘moderate’ overall vulnerability to the impacts of rising rain, temperature and storm events, by 2050 there is “potential for loss or significant alternation to at least some and potentially many key World Heritage values that comprise the OUV of the property.”

It added that there is a lack of shared data across sectors on past climate-related incidents in the World Heritage site, with more information needed on the local microclimate in necessary to better understand its impact, particularly on outdoor events such as the city’s festivals.

Edinburgh’s Christmas markets, which attract more than 2.5 million visitors, to Princes Street Gardens, have been blighted in the past by adverse weather and complaints over the impact on the site.

There is also a warning that rainwater management is an “important issue in the World Heritage property and needs addressing”, and called for a surface water management plan to understand flooding risks and underground drainage capacities.

The CVI research at the sites has involved a series of workshops led by the two Australian academics behind the CVI model, Dr Scott Heron and Dr Jon Day from James Cook University (JCU) in Townsville, Queensland, led by Historic Environment Scotland and involving academics and representatives from a range of organisations

They have carried out a similar CVI inspection at St Kilda, the UK’s only dual World Heritage Site, in recognition of its natural and cultural significance.

Owned by the National Trust for Scotland, there is increasing concern over the impact of climate change on both its natural features and built structures, including the deserted islanders’ homes on Hirta and its hundreds of cleits – the stone-built bothies were used as shelters and food stores, but are falling into disrepair.

A St Kilda report is expected to be published later this year. However, it is understood the CVI process has labelled its OUV as at ‘moderate’ risk from rain, storms and temperature changes.

Scotland has become a world leader in adopting the CVI approach: it has now been used at four of Scotland’s six World Heritage Sites, with further climate assessment being looked at for the remaining two, The Forth Bridge and New Lanark.

A ‘CVI Snapshot’ assessment is also underway across the Flow Country in Sutherland. Europe’s largest blanket bog peatlands has received UK government backing for Unesco World Heritage Site status.

Findings from the CVI reports will help develop action plans to help mitigate the impact of increased rainfall, temperatures and storm incidents.

Mairi Davies, Climate Change Policy Manager at Historic Environment Scotland, said: “Climate change is one of the most significant and fastest growing risks to World Heritage sites on a global level.

“With Scotland having the World Heritage Sites that we do, we need to get a better grip on what it means.

“This is about understanding what the threats are and what the vulnerability is, both in terms of Outstanding Universal Value of the site, but also the vulnerability of communities that are interacting with them and depend on them in various ways.

“This is part of the process of arming ourselves with the knowledge to be able to manage the risks.”

The Edinburgh Old and New Town report highlights the need for more attention to be paid to protecting and repairing properties, she added.

“We are already quite aware that we have a culture that doesn’t emphasise pro-active maintenance and repair of our traditional building stock.

“Scotland has one of the highest proportions of surviving historic and traditional buildings compared to other European countries – a real asset in terms of cultural heritage and our identity as a country.

“One of the most effective things we can do is to keep on top of repair and maintenance.”

A spokesperson for Edinburgh World Heritage said: "This CVI workshop also reinforced the importance of the links between a World Heritage property and its local community.  

"It has refreshed our thinking and started a conversation with ONTE’s community to discuss how we continue to ensure the WHS and its values – both the Outstanding Universal Value and other local values – are preserved for future generations through a climate change lens."