Inflation and the Covid pandemic have eroded the effectiveness of minimum unit pricing (MUP) for alcohol in Scotland, according to a new analysis.
Researchers from the Sheffield Alcohol Research Group (SARG), based at Sheffield University, said MUP would have to be 61 pence per unit now instead of the current 50 pence just to keep pace with the rise in prices since the policy was implemented.
It comes as the Scottish Government announced that it will carry out a public consultation on continuing minimum unit pricing and raising it to 65 pence per unit.
The legislation, which took effect in May 2018, is subject to a 'sunset clause' which means it would automatically elapse from May 2024 unless MSPs pass new laws to extend it.
READ MORE: Alcohol deaths in Scotland climb to 15 year high
The SARG study said the current 50 pence rate is effectively worth 41 pence now after adjusting for the effects of inflation over the past five years.
The analysis also found that heavier drinkers in Scotland increased their alcohol consumption during 2020, further cancelling out some of the beneficial impacts of MUP.
In contrast, people drinking within the 14 units per week guideline had tended to reduce consumption.
A recent analysis by Public Health Scotland estimated that MUP had avoided around 150 alcohol-specific deaths a year in its first 30 months, but that the effects had been blunted by inflation and Covid-related lockdowns which were blamed for "polarising" drinking habits.
The number of people dying in Scotland as a direct result of alcohol climbed to 1,276 last year - the highest since 2008.
Colin Angus, a senior research fellow at Sheffield University's Centre for Health and Related Research, said: “We now have the evidence to demonstrate that MUP has worked to reduce alcohol harm, but high inflation means 50p per unit in 2023 is considerably less effective than 50p was when MUP was first introduced in Scotland five years ago.
“Our new analysis suggests that alcohol consumption is 2.2% higher than it would have been if the MUP level had risen in line with inflation since it was introduced.”
READ MORE: From minimum unit pricing to the strange increase in alcohol deaths among the over-75s
Modelling by the Sheffield team also estimated that even if alcohol consumption returns to pre-pandemic levels in 2023, an estimated 663 more people will die as a result of alcohol harm by 2040.
Under more pessimistic assumptions, where alcohol consumption remains at pandemic levels, the forecast increases to an additional 7,924 avoidable deaths.
Mr Angus added: “Increased levels of alcohol-attributable harm are yet another way in which the Covid-19 pandemic continues to cast a long shadow on the health of the Scottish public.
"Even under optimistic assumptions about how long the increases in the drinking of heavier drinkers that we have seen during the pandemic might persist, the long-term effects of these increases are likely to cancel out some of the beneficial impacts of MUP.”
Elinor Jayne, director of the Scottish Health Action on Alcohol Problems (SHAAP), said the findings should underpin recommendations on a revised level for minimum pricing.
She said: “We believe that it should be at least 65p to restore MUP’s impact since 50p was first put in legislation more than ten years ago, and that thereafter it should automatically be uprated to maintain alcohol’s relative affordability to other products.
"This way we will start to realise the full benefits of MUP and the Scottish Government can then take forward other measures such as restricting alcohol marketing and investing in treatment services for people with alcohol problems.”
READ MORE: The success of minimum pricing is based on deaths that never happened - so how do you count them?
Sir Ian Gilmore, chair of the Alcohol Health Alliance, said: “The report from Sheffield Alcohol Research Group (SARG) today once again demonstrates that alcohol consumption in Scotland, and the subsequent levels of harm, are sensitive to changes in price.
"To put it simply, the higher the level of MUP, the greater the health benefits.
“The study highlights the need to ensure that MUP is linked to inflation to prevent the benefits eroding over time. The Scottish Government must use this evidence to further inform their decision to keep this lifesaving policy and set it at a level that retains its public health gains.”
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