Having taken on the job in the middle of an economic and political maelstrom, it’s hardly a surprise Jeremy Hunt has sought to convey an impression of dullness and solidity since taking over as Chancellor a year ago. However, whilst he has navigated through the storm, there remain big questions over whether he can succeed in achieving the Prime Minister’s goals of halving inflation, growing the economy, and reducing the national debt.

After all, inflationary pressures remain sticky and the headline rate high. Recession may have been avoided but the rate of economic growth is measly. The deficit in the Government’s finances may be coming under control but the national debt continues to swell.

Each target is critically important. Wages may finally be growing in real terms and for the first time in ages, yet consumer spending power, the mainstay of our economy, is still being held back by elevated prices. Sustainable growth is central to improving living standards and generating the tax receipts which fund public services, yet neither Westminster nor Holyrood have been good at delivering it in recent years. And getting to grips with the public finances, by eliminating the deficit and ultimately beginning to pay down the debt, should help militate against the need for tax hikes which hold back growth.

This is the backdrop to the UK Government’s Autumn Statement in two weeks’ time. It’s also why the retail industry is seeking action from the Chancellor on two fronts, to reduce the cost of doing business and to perk up demand.

Retailers are striving to keep down prices for shoppers. However, an inflation-linked rise in the business rate next spring could add £470 million to UK retailers’ rates bills and undermine their ability to drive down prices on shop shelves. A rates freeze on the other-hand would help retailers keep down prices and deliver a more coherent effort to supporting retail destinations and town centres still reeling from the pandemic, building on the Prime Minister’s recently announced £1 billion "long term plan for towns".

Scotland’s retailers will watch to see whether the UK Government continues its  retail, hospitality and leisure sectors’ rates relief into 2024/25. Shops here in Scotland have missed out on the 75% rates discount, unlike counterparts in Wales and England. If the relief is extended it should equally apply in Scotland.

To pep up the economy, a fresh effort should be made to attract visitors from abroad. High-spending visitors make a valuable economic contribution through the purchase of goods and holidaying here, yet international tourist spend has shifted to the Continent because of the tax savings they offer. Reinstating tax-free shopping would lift international visitor numbers, generate revenues and jobs in retail, tourism and hospitality here in Scotland, and boost growth.

Once the Chancellor delivers his statement, attention north of the Border will immediately turn to December’s Scottish Budget. Finance Secretary Shona Robison will have her opportunity to influence the economic weather.

Like their UK counterparts, Scottish ministers need to be mindful of the fragile condition of many businesses right now. Encouragingly, positive steps have been taken of late with the publication of the New Deal for Business implementation plan.

The Scottish Retail Consortium set out its Scottish Budget recommendations in a recent paper titled ‘Eliminating the deficit, competitive tax, boosting growth’. It included ideas to make Scotland the best place in the UK to grow a retail business.

These included: plugging the £1 billion projected spending gap through spending restraint rather than tax hikes; not adding to the woes on household finances through higher taxes; freezing the business rate; and accelerating the timetable for restoring parity with England on the higher property rate.

The First Minister’s move to freeze council tax suggests his administration is taking heed, and not before time. Recent rises in council tax and Scottish income tax have taken a £250 million bite out of consumer spending.

It will be a long road to full recovery for businesses just as much as it will be for public sector finances. The Chancellor and Finance Secretary have a key role to play in starting that recovery as swiftly as possible.

David Lonsdale is director of the Scottish Retail Consortium