Majority support for independence and SNP lead new poll

Support for Scottish independence is at a similar level to the polling company - Ipsos Mori's - last survey in May, with Yes slightly ahead. Among those with a voting intention and very likely to vote, 54% say they would vote Yes in an immediate referendum while 46% say they would vote No. 

READ MORE: Poll: Scots believe Matheson should resign from government

Voter preferences are similar when Ipsos Mori published its poll in May, with the SNP on 40% (-1 since May), Labour on 30% (+1), the Conservatives on 15% (-2), the Liberal Democrats on 6% (unchanged), the Green Party on 3% (unchanged) and other on 5% (+2). 

Independence supporters march over the Stirling Old Bridge on their way to Bannockburn in June last year. Photo Colin Mearns/The Herald.

However, at 40%, the proportion of likely voters who say they would vote for the SNP in an immediate General Election is 5 points lower than the 45% who voted for them at the last General Election in December 2019.

In terms of Scottish Parliament voting intention the SNP have a 12-point lead over Labour on Scottish Parliament constituency voting intention, according to the poll for STV news.

READ MORE: Subscriptions from The Herald (heraldscotland.com)

Voter preferences for Holyrood are broadly similar to May, with the SNP on 39% (-3), Labour on 27% (-1), the Conservatives on 15% (-2), the Liberal Democrats on 8% (+1), the Green Party on 4% (unchanged) and other on 6% (+4). 

At 39%, the proportion of likely voters who say they would cast their constituency vote for the SNP in an immediate Holyrood Election is 8 points lower than the 47.7% who voted for them at the last Holyrood Election in May 2021.

The SNP also lead Labour by 7 points on regional list voting intention. Headline voting intention finds the SNP on 33% (-2), Labour on 26% (-1), the Conservatives on 15% (-2), the Green Party on 10% (-2), the Liberal Democrats on 8% (+3) and Other on 7% (+2). 

READ MORE: Why does the SNP still lead the polls after many months of troubles?

However, in a result that will put further pressure on the SNP and Mr Yousaf a majority of the Scottish public (61%) think Michael Matheson should resign as health secretary over the issue of his Ipad roaming bill. 

The poll brought bad news for Prime Minister Rishi Sunak whose ratings among the Scottish public have worsened, with 72% dissatisfied with his performance in Number 10 now, compared with 53% a year ago. 

Scottish Labour leader Anas Sarwar is the only political leader asked about in the poll to receive a positive net satisfaction rating, as was also the case in May. Some 40% are satisfied with his performance as Scottish Labour leader, while 37% are dissatisfied, giving a net satisfaction rating of +3. 

Scottish Labour leader Anas Sarwar.  Photo: PA.

Mr Yousaf’s ratings are more negative. Some 35% are satisfied with his performance as First Minister, while 48% are dissatisfied, giving a net satisfaction rating of -13. 

Scottish Conservative leader Douglas Ross receives a negative net satisfaction rating of -27. 
New Foreign Secretary David Cameron also receives a negative net satisfaction rating. However, at -27, it is less negative than both Mr Sunak's current rating (-53) and Mr Cameron's own rating in the latter days of his time as Prime Minister (-38 in April 2016). 

Dissatisfaction with Keir Starmer has also increased since May. Some 32% are satisfied with his performance as leader of the UK Labour Party, while 52% are dissatisfied, giving him a net satisfaction rating of -20 compared with -12 in May. 

The poll found that the Scottish public are slightly more likely to agree that Labour is ready to form the next UK Government (41%) than to disagree with this (36%). 

However, in contrast, more disagree than agree that Scottish Labour is ready to form the next Scottish Government (45% vs 32%). There are signs of improvement for Labour in Scotland, however, with a net ‘ready to govern’ rating (the % that agree they are ready to govern in Scotland, minus the % that disagree) of -13 now, compared with -22 a year ago. 

Emily Gray, Managing Director of Ipsos in Scotland, commented:  “The Labour Party continues to face a political challenge in Scotland. Although the party has made strides in Scotland under Sarwar and Starmer, including the Rutherglen and Hamilton West by-election win in October, this latest poll finds that they remain 10 points behind the SNP when it comes to General Election voting intention. 

"Although Humza Yousaf’s party have been having a difficult time of late, with controversy over Michael Matheson’s parliamentary iPad data roaming bill of almost £11,000, they remain out in front when it comes to voter preferences for both Westminster and Holyrood elections.”

SNP Depute Leader Keith Brown MSP said: "The SNP will continue to work as hard as we can every day to improve the lives of the people of this country. By contrast, it has never been clearer that Westminster just doesn't work for Scotland.

"There is a choice between two futures: an independent Scotland with full powers to build a better country or a Westminster system and Brexit-based UK economy which is driving down people's living standards.

“We take absolutely nothing for granted and will re-double our efforts with the powers we have to help communities and businesses. Independent countries that are like Scotland are fairer and wealthier than the UK - so why not Scotland?”

Ipsos interviewed a representative sample of 1,004 adults aged 16+ across Scotland carrying out interviews by  telephone from November 20 to 26 this year.