Labour has extended its lead over the SNP in a new poll after Humza Yousaf's government has faced a series of challenges in recent weeks.

The survey by YouGov put Anas Sarwar's party on 33% in terms of Westminster voting intentions, two points ahead of the SNP.

A YouGov MRP survey for The Times last week also made for grim reading for the SNP, with Mr Yousaf’s party forecast to fall to 19 seats, a substantial drop on the 48 won in 2019. The pollster said that would see Labour "comfortably" become the biggest party in Scotland.

Publishing the new poll today, YouGov noted: "With our recent MRP showing Labour pushing the SNP into second place in terms of seats in Scotland, now the latest YouGov/Times Scotland voting intention survey shows Keir Starmer’s party marginally ahead of their nationalist rivals for the first time since the independence referendum in 2014.

"One in three Scots (33%) currently they intend to vote for Labour at the forthcoming general election, giving the party a minor two point lead over the SNP (31%)."

The previous poll in the YouGov series – conducted in October 2023 – had the SNP just a single ahead of Labour, at 33% and 32% respectively.

Today's research also revealed that the SNP have lost a fifth (20%) of their 2019 voters to Labour, and are currently holding on to 66% of those who backed them previously.

It also showed the Conservative vote share in Scotland has fallen six points since October to 14% with the Reform Party picking up the support of right wing voters north of the Border, increasing their vote share by five points, from 2% to 7%.

The Tories are only holding on to 54% of their 2019 voters, having lost 19% to Labour and 22% to Reform UK, the poll found.

Elsewhere, the Liberal Democrats are on 7% (+2) and the Greens are on 5% (no change).

Holyrood voting intention

When it comes to Holyrood constituency voting intention, the SNP are still holding on to their lead – though barely, the poll noted.

"Currently Humza Yousaf’s party are only two points ahead of Labour, at 34% and 32% respectively. This is compared to the eight point lead they held in October," it said.

"When it comes to the regional vote, the two parties are neck and neck, at 29% apiece. The two parties had also been tied in October’s poll (at 28%)."

"The Conservatives are a distant third in both votes, on 15-16%, while the Lib Dems are on 8-9%, while the Greens are on 9% of the regional vote and 4% of the constituency vote."

Independence vote

The survey noted that "the story is static" when it comes to Scottish independence.

"Currently 53% of Scots say they would vote No in a repeat of the 2014 referendum, compared to 47% who would vote Yes – this is the same split as it was the last time we asked in September 2023," it said.

Fieldwork for the YouGov poll published today was carried out from March 25 to April 2. The period coincided with controversy over the Scottish Government's Hate Crime Act, ahead of the measures coming into force on April 2.

The Hate Crime and Public Order (Scotland) Act was approved by MSPs in March 2021 but its passage was one of the most difficult of the SNP’s time in government.

Mr Yousaf, who was justice secretary when the bill went through parliament, has dismissed claims that it will be a “shambles from day one”, criticising disinformation being spread about the new law.

The bill was introduced in response to an independent review of Scotland’s hate crime laws by Lord Bracadale. The legislation broadens the offence of “stirring up racial hatred”, extending it to the protected characteristics of disability, religion, sexual orientation, age, and transgender identity.

It also provides for harsher sentences for those convicted of crimes considered to be “aggravated by prejudice”, so if offenders demonstrate malice or ill-will towards their victim based on the protected characteristics.

However, those characteristics do not include sex, an omission criticised by many feminist groups. Separate legislation relating to the hatred of women is being prepared for ministers after a review led by Baroness Kennedy of the Shaws KC.

Freedom of expression has been at the forefront of the debate over the law.

Rob Hay, president of Association of Scottish Police Superintendents, said that the new legislation may be “weaponised” by the “activists fringe of particular viewpoints”. He added “it is likely police officers will have to investigate the circumstances of any report”.

But Adam Tomkins, professor of public law University of Glasgow and a former Conservative MSP who led the cross-party Holyrood committee which scrutinised the bill, was more relaxed about its implications and has accused “intemperate voices on both the left and the right” of misrepresenting the legislation.

Similarly, James Chalmers, a legal scholar at the University of Glasgow, said the debate around the bill needed to “calm down a bit” and that the law merely provided “a more accurate label for prosecuting serious cases of hatred”.